As the CME Group Inc has successively increased margins on precious metals, silver has failed to recover from the sell-off in the final week of 2025, unable to hold firmly above $80. The market anticipates continued volatility in precious metal prices, but one fund manager and market strategist warns investors not to be distracted by the noise.
Jen Bawden, Founder and CEO of Bawden Capital, recently commented on LinkedIn that the CME's move to raise margins to curb speculative interest in silver is merely a "smokescreen" masking a larger issue, one that will ultimately drive prices higher.
She stated that she expects the price of silver to climb to $200 per ounce.
"To the layperson, the mainstream narrative will blame this on excessive speculation and holiday liquidation. They are wrong. For those of us who lived through the market crashes of 2000 and 2008, this is not a crash; this is a desperate, coordinated banking bailout occurring 24 hours before the physical silver market decouples worldwide, aimed at protecting insolvent banks," she said. "Having tracked market cycles for 30 years, including successfully predicting the 2000 tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, I've learned to see through the facade. Today's action is a textbook paper smash, a deliberate weaponization of margin requirements designed to save banks that are deeply short and about to be devoured by a physical shortage."
Although the drop in silver futures prices might frighten some investors into thinking the market is heading for a collapse, Bawden said the fundamental outlook for the physical market paints a completely opposite picture.
Bawden warned that the tight supply situation in the physical silver market is only set to intensify, as China has restricted exports of refined silver effective January 1st.
"This policy, affecting about 70% of the global physical silver supply, will fundamentally alter the metal's global flow," she said.
The "ghost" of the Hunt brothers still haunts the silver market.
Some analysts view the CME's margin hikes as a potential signal of a market top, similar to what happened in the early 1980s. The Hunt brothers became famous for attempting to corner the market by buying up nearly two-thirds of the world's annual silver production. However, much of this silver was purchased with leveraged funds, and when regulators introduced new trading rules that severely restricted buying commodities on margin, the silver price crashed, ending the Hunt brothers' scheme.
However, Bawden pointed out that the situation today is different; it's not about one party trying to corner the market, but various groups fighting for supply as above-ground inventories dwindle.
"The 'Hunt brothers' of 2026 aren't just two wealthy Texans; they are China, the solar industry, and European central banks themselves," she said.
Bawden stated that silver's recent designation as a critical metal will only add to its industrial demand. Meanwhile, the ongoing implementation of the Basel III regulatory framework will continue to force banks to hold more physical metal.
"With the US and EU now designating silver as a strategic mineral, the fight for the remaining 22,000 tons of silver in London vaults has become a national security issue," she said. "Smart money is no longer just buying gold; they are cornering the silver market before China's export ban permanently closes the door."
In Bawden's view, another element contributing to the "perfect storm" in the silver market is the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts around the New Year.
"As rates fall and the U.S. dollar index slides below 100, the opportunity cost of holding silver has vanished. When the dollar weakens, silver doesn't just rise; it soars," she said.
Although silver prices are still struggling to find a solid footing, Bawden said any pullbacks should be viewed as long-term buying opportunities. She also sees significant potential in silver mining companies.
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