Elon Musk's rocket and satellite manufacturing company, SpaceX, is reportedly leaning towards a listing on the Nasdaq exchange. The anticipated initial public offering (IPO) is expected to raise up to $50 billion, valuing the company at approximately $1.75 trillion. This would surpass the record for the world's largest IPO, set by Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is also actively competing for the opportunity to list this landmark asset.
Rumors of a SpaceX IPO have circulated for some time, but recent details suggest the capital market event is moving into a substantive phase. To secure this major listing, Nasdaq is reportedly considering creating a custom "Fast Entry" rule tailored for prominent tech firms. Under the proposed new rule, giant companies that enter the index's top 40 by market capitalization after their IPO could be included in the Nasdaq 100 index within one month, bypassing the previous one-year observation period. This "fast lane" policy aims to provide quicker index liquidity support for ultra-large unicorns like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, highlighting US stock exchanges' strong desire to attract high-quality, large-scale tech assets. Previous reports suggested SpaceX initially planned an IPO as early as June of this year.
The US capital market in 2026 stands once again at a historic crossroads, caught between a queue of promising tech companies waiting to go public and a complex environment of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Joel Burstein, co-founder of Marcum Asia, stated that US AI giants are deeply entrenched in a "waiting game." Due to substantial funding available in private markets, leading US AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are inclined to remain private longer to absorb research and development costs. This has created a temporary gap in the supply of AI assets on public markets. Burstein added that he anticipates 2026 will be a historic year, with a significant number of high-profile private companies poised and ready to launch their IPOs.
Burstein illustrated that SoftBank's committed investment in OpenAI alone in 2025 ($41 billion) was nearly equivalent to the total funds raised by all IPOs in the US public market that year ($44.1 billion). He indicated that for the broader startup ecosystem, these large-scale IPOs will serve as liquidity events, injecting new vitality into the entire venture capital landscape. When these star companies successfully list and generate returns, it not only validates the sector's viability but also reopens doors for small and medium-sized enterprises that have long faced challenges.
However, recent sell-offs in US software stocks have also highlighted valuation risks, particularly as this sector accounts for about a quarter of the current US IPO backlog. Diana Doyle, co-head of Morgan Stanley's Americas Technology Equity Capital Markets, stated last week at the firm's TMT conference in San Francisco that AI technology has become a mandatory topic for all companies planning to go public. The listing threshold has risen significantly: investors now demand not only strong growth and profitability but also a clear articulation of a company's AI competitive advantage or "moat."
Goldman Sachs analysts project that as well-known companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic list sequentially, the US stock market could experience an IPO boom in 2026. They forecast IPO fundraising could quadruple to a record $160 billion, with the number of IPOs potentially doubling to 120.
Beneath the potential boom, the shadow of geopolitics persists, with the US facing strong competition from other regions in attracting listings from AI and tech companies. Burstein noted that geopolitical friction is fundamentally reshaping the global IPO map. While the US IPO market in 2026 has the potential to break records, geopolitical risks could cause this process to be slow and fragmented. He analyzed that two distinct models are emerging: a "Home Base" model and a "Multinational Corporation (MNC)" model.
"In sensitive sectors like AI and semiconductors, many companies are increasingly opting for a home-base-priority listing strategy to avoid being caught in the crossfire of geopolitical friction," Burstein added. "Conversely, multinational companies with globally driven revenue streams still aspire to list in the US to build an international brand. This strategic divergence is leading to a localization and stratification of what was once a more unified global capital market."
In January of this year, AI concept stock MiniMax listed on the Hong Kong Exchange, and its share price surged subsequently. Burstein commented, "Chinese AI companies are entering the public markets far earlier than their US counterparts. The successful listing or preparation for listing of these Chinese AI leaders sends a clear signal: investors no longer need to wait for a so-called 'OpenAI moment' to trade AI assets; they can find world-class innovation in China's capital markets. In the AI field, Chinese companies are shifting from being an option to becoming 'indispensable'."
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