Gold Market Analysis for Next Week: Fundamental Analysis for Gold (as of May 9): The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April non-farm payrolls report on Friday, May 8. Data showed that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, significantly higher than market expectations of approximately 55,000 to 65,000. The March figure was revised upward from an initial 178,000 to 185,000, while the February data was revised downward. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations. The data presented a bearish tone, directly leading to a rally and subsequent decline in gold prices, with the overall trend under pressure. This week's gold price movements reflect the market's balance between macro easing and geopolitical optimism. The short-term volatile pattern is likely to continue, with the ultimate direction still dependent on the actual progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and validation from major economic data. Investors should remain cautious, focusing on key technical levels and unexpected events.
Technical Analysis for Gold: From a wave structure perspective, the decline from 4890 to 4500 is wave A, the rebound from 4500 to 4764 is wave B, and today's focus is on a potential wave C decline. Gold experienced a rally and subsequent decline yesterday, with the high of 4764 being close to our expected 4770. It precisely reached the resistance of the 100-day moving average and was also pressured near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the probability of gold entering wave C decline today is high. In terms of trading strategy, using 4764 as a defensive level, the overall outlook is bearish. Daily Chart Level: A high "doji" candlestick indicates a balance between bullish and bearish forces. Yesterday's daily chart closed with a doji candlestick featuring an extremely long upper shadow, which is a typical high-level stagnation signal. Today, the gold price quickly retreated after surging to around 4750 USD, indicating extremely heavy selling pressure above. Bullish attempts to advance have repeatedly failed to hold gains. The 5-day moving average shows signs of flattening, and the MACD indicator's red histogram is contracting, signaling a significant decline in upward momentum. The daily chart level has shifted from a unilateral uptrend to high-level wide-range fluctuations, with bullish and bearish forces temporarily reaching a precarious balance.
Gold 4-Hour and 1-Hour Levels: Clear Fluctuation Framework with Key Levels Identified. Short-term charts show that the gold price is currently moving within a clear fluctuation range. The area of 4750-4764 USD constitutes a strong intraday resistance zone. Unless the bulls can significantly break through and hold this area, a shift to strength is unlikely. Key support below lies in the 4630-4650 USD region. On the 1-hour chart, a large bearish engulfing pattern formed after sharp rises and falls, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The trading strategy remains primarily focused on selling on rallies. Short-term resistance is observed around 4750-4765, with support around 4680. In summary, for gold's short-term trading strategy next week, the recommendation is to primarily sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is focused on the 4750-4765 range, while key short-term support is focused on the 4680-4660 range.
Crude Oil Market Analysis for Next Week: Fundamental Analysis for Crude Oil: During Friday's Asian trading session, the international crude oil market experienced a pullback from highs. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices retreated slightly after consecutive gains, trading around 95.80 USD per barrel. Earlier, the Middle East situation had driven a rapid climb in oil prices. However, as the market received signals of easing tensions from Israel and Iran, some funds began to take profits, leading to short-term pressure on oil prices. This week's core focus in the international energy market remains on the escalating geopolitical risks between the United States and Iran. The U.S. military stated that American forces conducted retaliatory military actions against Iran on Thursday, targeting locations including the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. side claimed these actions were primarily in response to previous attacks on U.S. naval vessels, emphasizing that they were "limited military responses."
Technical Analysis for Crude Oil: From the daily chart perspective, oil prices are moving around the moving average system, with the medium-term objective trend direction entering a fluctuation phase. From a primary-secondary rhythm viewpoint, the overall fluctuation pattern in crude oil's movement is considered a secondary rhythm, which has been maintained for two months. According to the principle of alternation between primary and secondary rhythms, the medium-term subjective trend direction is upward. Currently, the MACD indicator is operating near the zero axis, with bullish momentum waning. It is expected that the medium-term trend will maintain a fluctuation pattern. For crude oil's short-term (1-hour) movement, prices remain in low-level fluctuation, showing weak rebounds. Oil prices have crossed the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend direction being sideways fluctuation, while the primary trend direction is downward. Bearish momentum shows signs of weakening. It is anticipated that crude oil's movement next week will primarily maintain a low-level fluctuation rhythm. In summary, for crude oil's trading strategy next week, the recommendation is to primarily sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is focused on the 100.0-105.0 range, while key short-term support is focused on the 90.0-85.0 range.
Comments