Abstract
Starbucks will report fiscal second-quarter results on April 28, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS expectations alongside last quarter’s performance and institutional sentiment trends.Market Forecast
Consensus for the current fiscal quarter anticipates revenue of 9.14 billion US dollars, EBIT of 0.75 billion US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 0.43, with year-over-year changes of approximately 3.64% for revenue, -9.49% for EBIT, and -12.63% for adjusted EPS; no formal consensus for gross margin or net profit margin is available, but the company’s recent trend suggests near-term pressure versus last year. Main business momentum is expected to be led by company-operated stores with steady ticket and modest transaction growth, while licensed stores and consumer packaged goods (CPG)/foodservice provide incremental support. The segment with the most potential remains company-operated stores, projected to contribute the largest revenue base near 8.19 billion US dollars last quarter and expected to be the primary lever for recovery given store growth and productivity initiatives.Last Quarter Review
In the previous fiscal quarter, Starbucks reported revenue of 9.92 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 21.07%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.29 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 2.96%, and adjusted EPS of 0.56, with year-over-year revenue growth of 5.50% and adjusted EPS down 18.84%. A notable highlight was positive revenue surprise versus expectations, underscoring resilient sales despite margin pressure. By business, company-operated stores generated 8.19 billion US dollars, licensed stores 1.13 billion US dollars, and CPG/foodservice and other 0.60 billion US dollars, with the mix indicating company-operated stores as the core driver; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Company-operated stores
Company-operated stores account for the majority of revenue and are central to near-term performance. With consensus revenue growth of roughly 3.64% for the quarter and a forecast decline in EBIT and adjusted EPS, the setup implies ongoing cost and mix pressure despite underlying sales growth, which in practice is most visible in company-operated store P&L. Key levers include transaction recovery in the U.S., continued premium beverage innovation, and throughput gains in peak dayparts. On the cost side, wage investments and input inflation continue to weigh on store-level margins, while lapping prior-year pricing creates a tougher revenue-per-transaction comparison that could restrain gross margin expansion.For investors tracking the quarter, comparable-store sales in the U.S. and China remain the swing variables for company-operated performance. Stabilization in U.S. traffic and check could support mid-single-digit revenue growth even if macro sentiment remains mixed. In China, the balance between unit growth and competitive pricing is likely to keep average unit volumes in focus; any sequential improvement in traffic or ticket would support margin stabilization later in the year. Execution on operational simplification and digital ordering throughput should mitigate labor deleverage risks if transactions remain choppy.
Most promising business: Licensed stores and CPG/foodservice
Licensed stores and CPG/foodservice represent a smaller revenue base than company-operated stores but are attractive for their capital-light economics. The licensed model can deliver royalty streams that are less volatile at the store P&L level, supporting consolidated margin resilience when labor and commodity costs are elevated. CPG and foodservice channels extend the brand outside the retail footprint, offering diversification across geographies and dayparts.Growth potential in these segments stems from distribution expansion and innovation in ready-to-drink beverages and at-home coffee formats. Improved supply chain normalization versus the prior year can benefit shipment cadence and promotional efficiency. While these revenues are smaller in absolute terms—recent quarter contributions were roughly 1.13 billion US dollars for licensed and 0.60 billion US dollars for CPG/foodservice and other—their incremental margin is often accretive, which becomes more meaningful when company-operated store margins face cost headwinds. If retailer inventory levels remain healthy and new product sell-through meets plan, these businesses can provide a modest buffer to consolidated EBIT pressure signaled by consensus.
Key stock drivers this quarter
The first stock driver is comparable sales in the U.S. and China, which directly influence revenue trajectory and management’s confidence in the existing fiscal-year outlook. A revenue print near 9.14 billion US dollars with low- to mid-single-digit comp growth would align with consensus, while underperformance could sharpen margin concerns given the forecast EPS contraction. The second driver is gross margin and store-level profitability; last quarter’s 21.07% gross margin and 2.96% net margin highlight sensitivity to wage and commodity costs, so any commentary on productivity programs or moderation in input inflation will be watched for signs of sequential improvement.The third driver is operating expense discipline and the cadence of reinvestment. Consensus implies EBIT down around 9.49% year over year, so investors will parse whether lower operating leverage is transitory or structural. Updates on digital engagement, loyalty monetization, and operational simplification could frame the margin recovery path into the second half. Finally, capital return cadence—while secondary to operations—can shape sentiment around medium-term EPS stability if operating trends remain mixed.
Analyst Opinions
Most published views in recent months have skewed cautious, with the balance of opinions tilting toward neutral-to-bearish on near-term earnings, citing margin pressure and uncertain traffic recovery; bullish opinions are in the minority. The prevailing view expects modest revenue growth but a year-over-year decline in EBIT and adjusted EPS, consistent with consensus pointing to 3.64% revenue growth and a 12.63% decline in adjusted EPS. Several well-followed analysts highlight that wage investments and promotional normalization could limit gross margin expansion in the quarter, while China’s recovery trajectory remains a key debate that may constrain multiple expansion until visibility improves.Institutional commentary emphasizes that valuation support will likely require clearer evidence of comp reacceleration and cost leverage. Analysts focused on U.S. trends note that digital and customization remain strong brand differentiators, but throughput and daypart mix are critical for translating demand into margin. On balance, the majority perspective frames risk-reward as balanced to slightly negative into the print, with upside hinging on outperformance in comps and early signs of cost relief. Should management reiterate a credible path to accelerate sales and stabilize margins, sentiment could improve despite near-term EPS headwinds.
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