Abstract
Lowe's Companies, Inc. will report fiscal first-quarter results on May 20, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, current-quarter projections for revenue, margins and adjusted EPS, key business drivers, and where the analyst community’s majority view stands ahead of the print.
Market Forecast
Based on current-quarter projections, revenue is expected at 22.96 billion US dollars, up 9.66% year over year, with EBIT estimated at 2.61 billion US dollars (+5.47% YoY) and adjusted EPS at 2.97 (+3.17% YoY). Forecasts do not explicitly embed gross margin or net margin targets; investors will watch how mix, pricing, and promotions translate to margins relative to last year’s baseline.
Across core categories, management’s focus remains on execution in home improvement staples, inventory health, and disciplined pricing; the seasonal cadence and fulfillment speed are expected to set the tone for sell-through in spring assortments. Seasonal products, which generated 24.19 billion US dollars in recent performance snapshots, are positioned to leverage spring demand as total company revenue is projected to rise 9.66% year over year.
Last Quarter Review
Lowe's Companies, Inc. delivered revenue of 20.58 billion US dollars (+10.95% YoY), gross profit margin of 32.46%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 1.00 billion US dollars, a net margin of 4.86%, and adjusted EPS of 1.98 (+2.59% YoY).
Operating performance strengthened as EBIT reached 1.86 billion US dollars, up 6.11% year over year, reflecting cost discipline and mix benefits that partially offset ongoing promotional intensity. By category, Home Décor delivered 31.53 billion US dollars, Building Maintenance 26.53 billion US dollars, and Seasonal Products 24.19 billion US dollars, while total company sales rose 10.95% year over year and weather-sensitive lines continued to drive the quarterly swing factor.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business trajectory and earnings algorithm
The main profit algorithm this quarter rests on the balance between ticket and traffic across core home improvement categories, pricing discipline versus promotional elasticity, and execution on in-stock and service levels in spring assortments. With current-quarter revenue projected at 22.96 billion US dollars (+9.66% YoY), the path to EPS of roughly 2.97 implies modest operating leverage, aided by expense control and steady merchandise margins in key categories. The prior quarter’s gross margin mark at 32.46% provides a reference point: a stable to slightly improved merchandise margin mix could offset normal seasonal promotions, while shrink and logistics should be watched for incremental variability.
Within the core business, sell-through in building materials and repair-driven categories tends to be less discretionary than décor; that supports steadier mix contribution if promotional cadence remains disciplined. Inventory quality and turns are likely to remain central, as on-time availability in lawn and garden, outdoor power, and related seasonal items can limit markdown risk late in the quarter. On the expense side, store wage pressures and ongoing investments in fulfillment should be offset by leverage on higher revenue and targeted SG&A efficiencies, which helped deliver a 6.11% year-over-year increase in EBIT last quarter.
Channel and service execution also matter for the P&L. Omnichannel order fulfillment—buy online pick up in store, curbside, and scheduled deliveries—continues to compress cycle times, supporting attachment and higher average tickets in big-box runs. Consistency here can smooth weekly volatility around weather patterns. Combined, these dynamics set up for revenue growth in line with projections and a margin profile that will be judged versus last year’s levels rather than expansion assumed in advance.
Most promising near-term category and its revenue anchor
Seasonal products remain the most visible near-term swing category, underpinned by spring resets in outdoor living, lawn and garden, grills, patio, and exterior repair. In recent segment revenue detail, Seasonal Products accounted for 24.19 billion US dollars, giving it meaningful weight in quarterly outcomes as spring activity ramps. With total company revenue projected to increase 9.66% year over year this quarter, a clean execution window—steady weather, sharp in-stocks, and responsive replenishment—would allow this category to outperform internal seasonal plans and bolster merchandise margin dollars despite normal promotional activity.
The category’s contribution is amplified by attachment opportunities: outdoor power tools pull demand for batteries and accessories; patio sets drive add-on cushions, umbrellas, and protection plans; lawn care drives consumables reorders. Execution on end-cap storytelling and cross-merchandising can raise units per transaction and stabilize margins even when headline ticket growth moderates. From a profitability standpoint, better sell-through timing lowers clearance risk, so margin dollars can hold even as gross margin rate flexes with promotion calendars. The net effect is that Seasonal Products can meaningfully influence both top line and EBIT trajectory against the 2.61 billion US dollars EBIT estimate.
Beyond seasonal, building maintenance and repair categories, with recent revenue of 26.53 billion US dollars, continue to serve as a base for consistent weekly sales. These categories tend to drive repeat trips and attachment to fulfillment services, especially when parts availability and associate expertise shorten project timelines. Stable contribution from maintenance lines provides ballast for the quarter while Seasonal Products attempt to deliver upside to the 9.66% company-level growth projection.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter
Guidance framing, margin print, and inventory quality are likely to be the primary stock price catalysts around the release and call. On guidance, investors will parse any updates to full-year sales and EPS ranges and the cadence implied for the back half; stable guidance with a beat on the first-quarter revenue and EPS algorithm would likely be interpreted constructively. On margins, any commentary about merchandise margin rate versus plan, the promotional environment, and shrink trends will be central to how investors triangulate gross margin relative to the prior 32.46% reference point.
Inventory days and mix will be read as a tell for the next 90 days of demand and markdown risk. A cleaner seasonal exit with normalized clearance would support a better gross margin run-rate into the summer. On capital returns, the pace of buybacks can affect EPS optics; last quarter’s adjusted EPS of 1.98 grew 2.59% year over year, partly reflecting disciplined cost and capital allocation. Any acceleration in repurchases, within the context of cash generation, could shape per-share earnings outcomes even if operating income tracks close to the 2.61 billion US dollars estimate.
Lastly, investors will watch for commentary on category resets, private brand penetration, and fulfillment efficiency. Private label growth can cushion merchandise margins, while improvements in picking, packing, and delivery reduce cost-to-serve. Clarity on these levers, combined with the spring seasonal outcome, will set the tone for how close the company can hew to projected growth while preserving the net profit margin near last quarter’s 4.86% as a qualitative benchmark.
Analyst Opinions
Recent analyst actions since January 2026 skew decisively positive. Across notable shops, Buy and Overweight stances outnumber Neutral or cautious views by roughly 6 to 1. KeyBanc (Bradley Thomas) reaffirmed a Buy with a 300.00 US dollars target, Wells Fargo (Zachary Fadem) reiterated a Buy at 290.00 US dollars, and Piper Sandler (Peter Keith) maintained a Buy at 294.00 US dollars. An upgrade to Overweight from Barclays helped frame improving sentiment in early 2026, while Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight view and Citigroup upgraded the shares to Buy with a 285.00 US dollars target into mid-May. A single downgrade to Neutral from another large brokerage and isolated target trims have not altered the balance of opinion, which remains majority bullish.
The bullish cohort highlights multiple supports heading into the print. First, a clean spring setup combined with disciplined in-stocks is seen as a favorable backdrop for seasonal acceleration; analysts expect that solid execution here can validate the company-level revenue projection of 22.96 billion US dollars, up 9.66% year over year. Second, expense control and SG&A discipline are expected to keep the EBIT bridge intact at about 2.61 billion US dollars (+5.47% YoY), even if merchandise margin reflects typical spring promotions. Third, Buy-rated analysts emphasize that omnichannel throughput and service attach should provide incremental comp lift, helping drive the projected adjusted EPS of 2.97 (+3.17% YoY) without relying on aggressive margin expansion.
In their majority view, several named analysts stress that category resets and private brands should support merchandise margin mix, offsetting promotional cadence in high-velocity seasonal lines. They also note that last quarter’s gross margin of 32.46% and net margin of 4.86% provide a realistic baseline; consistent inventory discipline and improved shrink management are expected to keep margins close to plan. On top of that, the continuation of repurchases is seen as a steady underpinning for per-share earnings and return of capital, with the prior quarter demonstrating that EPS can grow while the business invests in fulfillment and service capability.
The bullish framing also focuses on the company’s ability to execute on high-priority categories and maintain operational consistency. Analysts from KeyBanc and Piper Sandler explicitly call out visibility into spring seasonal strength and the benefits of timely replenishment in outdoor and lawn care, arguing this can support both revenue and merchandise margin dollars even within a promotional environment. Wells Fargo’s commentary around store execution and product availability aligns with this, reinforcing the case for a quarterly outcome that tracks or modestly exceeds the current 9.66% revenue growth projection.
Overall, the weight of institutional commentary tilts constructive. With Buy and Overweight ratings from KeyBanc, Wells Fargo, Piper Sandler, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup forming the plurality view, the consensus into the event leans toward a positive near-term earnings delivery anchored by stable execution in core categories and seasonally advantaged lines. The path to meeting or beating the 22.96 billion US dollars revenue and 2.97 adjusted EPS projections hinges on seasonal sell-through and margin discipline; the majority of analysts expect that combination to hold, supporting a favorable setup into and out of the May 20, 2026 Pre-Market report.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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