According to Woofun AI, although speculation is heating up over a merger between Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US), both of which are controlled by Elon Musk, Barclays PLC (BCS.US) analyst Dan Levy has made a bold prediction that the two companies could join forces as early as December this year. Prediction markets, however, have responded coolly, pricing the short-term merger probability at an extremely low level.
The core rationale for the merger lies in achieving vertical integration of AI technology. Levy speculates that the news could be announced in early December, before Tesla Motors' (TSLA.US) annual shareholder meeting. If the process is delayed to October or even early November, however, obtaining authorization would face severe challenges.
On governance structure, SpaceX (SPCX.US) uses a dual-class structure with Class A and Class B shares, where one Class B share carries the voting power of 10 Class A shares. Elon Musk controls SpaceX (SPCX.US) with roughly 85% of voting power after the IPO. By comparison, on the Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) side, a June 2026 document showed its voting power was 19.9%, below the 25% target it had once pursued. At the 2025 shareholder meeting, 11% of unvoted shares were treated as opposition votes because brokers did not vote, highlighting insufficient shareholder participation. Critics warn that further concentration of voting power could weaken shareholder interests.
On Wednesday night, SPCX shares fell to $148.99, down 2.08%, while TSLA dropped to $363.31, down 1.05%, even though Elon Musk stressed that the two sides have already engaged in deep cooperation across multiple areas. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that prediction markets remain cautious about the merger timeline. In February this year, SpaceX (SPCX.US) had already acquired xAI at a valuation of $1.25 trillion, but expectations for a merger between Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) are entirely different. The Kalshi platform shows the probability of a merger between the two companies at only 19%; the probability of a merger before May 2027 is 52%, and it rises to 71% before 2028. Polymarket data also confirms this trend: the probability of a merger before the end of December 2026 is 24%, only reaching 63% by December 31, 2027. This indicates that the market favors long-term integration rather than a short-term rush. The analyst's aggressive prediction stands in sharp contrast to the market's cold reception, reflecting deeper resistance from governance complexity and shareholder maneuvering. This is another key test for the expansion of Elon Musk's empire after the xAI acquisition, and the short-term merger window may be difficult to open.
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