Shipping tracking data indicates that on Tuesday, two stranded Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) transited the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, in recent weeks, seven ballasted liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers associated with Qatar have entered the strait, potentially serving as an early indicator of a resumption in gas shipments from the Gulf region.
Data also reveals that tankers linked to Iran continue to navigate this crucial waterway, with vessel traffic increasing on Monday as U.S.-Iran negotiations progressed. Prior to the start of talks, traffic had diminished due to threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump to resume hostilities and Tehran's announcement of renewed blockades.
The initial round of negotiations commenced on Sunday and concluded the following day, with both parties agreeing on a roadmap for a permanent agreement within 60 days. The U.S. also announced an extension of sanctions waivers until August 21st, alleviating market concerns over global crude and LNG supply and contributing to lower prices.
Analysts suggest that more crude oil cargoes stranded in the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of conflict are now expected to depart. Concurrently, an increasing number of sanctioned tankers are shuttling through the strait, loading and exporting Iranian crude following the U.S. sanctions waiver.
Data shows the VLCC "Universal Glory," chartered by South Korean refiner GS Caltex, departed the strait on Tuesday carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude.
GS Caltex declined to comment.
Data indicates two sanctioned Suezmax tankers, the "Sobar" and the "Sarak," were entering the strait on Tuesday. Each of these vessels can carry 1 million barrels of crude.
Qatari-Associated LNG Carriers
Vessel tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler shows that between June 11th and 22nd, seven ballasted LNG carriers controlled by QatarEnergy sailed west into the Persian Gulf for reloading. This marks the first such movement since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran commenced on February 28th.
A Vortexa report indicates the first three LNG carriers to enter the strait—the "Al Hamla," "Al Areesh," and "Al Khuwair"—switched off their automatic tracking systems during their voyages.
According to Kpler data, these three LNG carriers were last observed outside the strait in mid-June before reappearing in tracking data between June 19th and 23rd.
The remaining four vessels—the "Wadi Al Sail," "Mekaines," "Al Sadd," and "Mesaimeer"—entered the Strait of Hormuz via Iranian routes on Monday.
QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of business hours.
Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), noted this also represents the highest number of ballasted LNG carriers transiting the strait since the conflict began.
"There are other ballasted LNG carriers en route to Qatar. The shipping data further reinforces market expectations that QatarEnergy will gradually increase LNG production as planned," he said.
An explosion occurred at a gas processing facility within the Ras Laffan Industrial City on Monday, but the Energy Minister stated Qatar's LNG facilities were unaffected.
Regarding the departure of LNG carriers controlled by QatarEnergy from the strait, Kpler data shows the "Al Ghashamiya" was last observed inside the strait on June 9th, carrying a cargo loaded at Ras Laffan on March 1st. The vessel subsequently reappeared outside the strait on June 22nd.
Ayush Agarwal, an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, stated that a large-scale movement of ballasted vessels from Qatar and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) towards the Persian Gulf has not yet been observed, reflecting a cautious and phased approach to resuming operations.
S&P Global Commodity Insights highlights key risks: whether sustained safe navigation, insurer confidence, and the implementation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding can support a durable increase in Gulf LNG exports.
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