Spot Gold: On April 10, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold was trading near $4760 per ounce. Looking back at the previous trading day, the price of gold staged a rebound amid multiple intertwined factors. It once touched an intraday high of $4801 per ounce, ultimately closing up approximately 1% near $4765 per ounce. COMEX gold futures also rose by 0.28%, settling at $4790.50 per ounce. In terms of short-term price fluctuations, gold has recently exhibited a pattern of wide-ranging volatility. On April 8, international gold prices initially fell before rising, with New York gold futures gaining over 3%, and London spot gold returning to high levels. However, the market continued its pullback in the early session on April 9, although a weakening US Dollar Index limited the decline. This intense volatility reflects the fierce battle between bullish and bearish forces in the current gold market. The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the US March CPI data. If the inflation data shows signs of cooling, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut could rekindle, potentially leading to further weakness in the US dollar, which would be favorable for gold prices. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, the dollar might find support, putting downward pressure on gold.
On the daily chart, the gold price has formed a doji candlestick pattern at high levels, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. The price is currently trading near the middle Bollinger Band, with the bands narrowing, suggesting the short-term consolidation pattern is likely to continue. The RSI indicator is in neutral territory, and the MACD green bars have shortened somewhat, hinting at a slight weakening of bearish momentum, though no clear bullish signals have yet emerged. The hourly chart shows the gold price operating within an upward channel, but the upward momentum has weakened. A strong support level has formed near $4700 per ounce. If the price can hold above this level, a rebound is possible. The key resistance area to watch is the dense zone between $4800 and $4810 per ounce. A strong breakout above this area could alleviate short-term pressure and pave the way for a further test of the previous high near $4857 per ounce.
In the short term, the gold price is expected to remain volatile, with its trajectory highly dependent on the US March CPI data and geopolitical developments. If the CPI data indicates cooling inflation, gold could break through the $4800 resistance level and move towards higher ranges. If inflation exceeds expectations, the price may test the support at $4700 per ounce, potentially even declining further towards the $4650-$4630 area. For trading, consider entering long positions in the $4720-$4730 zone, with a stop loss set below $4700, targeting $4780-$4800. If the price rebounds to the $4800-$4810 resistance area and fails to break through, consider a light short position with a stop loss set above $4820, targeting $4750-$4730.
Spot Silver: From a technical perspective, the silver price is currently oscillating within a range of $70 to $76. On the daily chart, the MACD indicator shows narrowing green bars, and the KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross at low levels, indicating potential short-term rebound momentum. However, there is strong resistance near $76, which has prevented multiple attempts to break higher. The $70-$73 range serves as important support, with the low near $69.53 in late March forming a provisional bottom. If the price retreats to this area, buying interest is likely to emerge. On the hourly chart, the silver price is consolidating narrowly around $75, with moving averages intertwined, reflecting significant short-term disagreement between bulls and bears. A breakout above the $76 resistance level could target the $77-$78 range. A break below the $73 support level might lead to a test of the $70 mark. In terms of trading volume, recent activity in silver has increased, indicating heightened market attention, but no clear volume-backed breakout signal has appeared, suggesting the consolidation pattern is likely to persist in the near term.
For trading: Within the $73-$76 range, adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low. When the price falls to the $73-$74 area, consider a light long position with a stop loss set below $72, targeting $75-$76. When the price rallies to near $76 and encounters resistance, consider a light short position with a stop loss set above $77, targeting $74-$73.
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