According to a research report from Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., the global power investment logic is shifting from "efficiency-driven" to "security-driven," emphasizing the expansion of system capacity. The firm expresses optimism toward baseload energy, power grids, and new energy storage sectors. Key areas of focus include: 1) Baseload Power Sources: Baseload power sources with stable output capabilities are expected to undergo systematic repricing and valuation reassessment. The firm favors nuclear power and its supply chain, gas-fired power generation and its supply chain, as well as coal and thermal power. 2) Power Grids: Increased global grid investment coincides with risks of summer power shortages, likely leading to enhanced investment in new power infrastructure. Promising segments include transformers, high-voltage switches, smart grids, AIDC power supplies, and cables. 3) New Energy Storage: Evolving from supporting new energy to becoming critical assets for power security, the firm is optimistic about energy base co-located storage, commercial and industrial energy storage, and residential energy storage. Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd.'s main views are as follows:
The global energy system is transitioning toward "electricity dominance," but mismatches are intensifying. The ongoing electrification process, combined with sustained high-load demand driven by artificial intelligence and extreme heat from climate warming, means electricity demand no longer simply follows economic growth. Instead, it exhibits a structural characteristic of "elevated baseload + amplified peak demand." Electricity's share in final energy consumption continues to rise, making it the core carrier for nearly all new energy demand. However, the supply and investment framework of power systems remains stuck in old paradigms, while traditional dispatchable power sources continue to shrink under decarbonization pressure, exacerbating the fragility of global power systems. The price mechanism's ability to regulate supply and demand is weakening. Power shortages are not solely a U.S. issue but have evolved into a significant, unavoidable risk for global power systems.
Geopolitical disruptions to energy supply, coupled with summer electricity demand dynamics, may have a larger-than-expected impact. The market currently accounts only for energy supply issues caused by geopolitical factors, without fully recognizing the risks posed by the overlap with the global peak electricity demand season. Summer demand shocks due to global warming have already strained the global power system in 2025. Current geopolitical tensions are reducing the stability of energy supply, creating hard gaps in the supply of critical baseload energy like natural gas. This forces stronger substitution among energy sources, with a trend toward shifting from gas to coal gradually emerging. The global energy system has shifted from "tight supply-demand balance" to "supply uncertainty dominance." If high temperatures coincide with high loads, any marginal disturbance could be amplified into an actual constraint on the power system, further driving up electricity price volatility and increasing the risk of power shortages.
Global power shortages may reshape the global energy investment framework. The global energy system is undergoing a systemic restructuring from "efficiency-driven" to "security-driven." Correspondingly, national energy policies may prioritize energy security and stability over efficiency and environmental protection. Aligned with this restructuring of global power investment logic, future investment focus may shift toward "system capacity expansion" to ensure "system reliability assurance." This change could lead to systematic revaluation of assets related to power grids, energy storage, and baseload power sources. Finally, baseload power sources with stable output capabilities may be redefined as "strategic resources," with nuclear energy as the long-term direction, natural gas as the new mainstay in the short to medium term, and coal returning as the short-to-medium-term energy stabilizer.
Risk warnings include geopolitical risks, global macroeconomic risks, and risks associated with energy market transformations.
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