Everbright Securities released a research report stating that commercial space has become one of the strongest market themes recently, with space photovoltaics being the core beneficiary sector. Technological iteration in space photovoltaics will drive sustained growth in the demand for new technology production capacity and equipment. Photovoltaic enterprises that strategically position themselves early in the space photovoltaic field and achieve differentiated technological reserves are expected to gain first-mover advantages and valuation premiums during the early stages of industry development. The main viewpoints of Everbright Securities are as follows.
An event where Musk announced at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos that Tesla and SpaceX plan to build a total of 200GW of photovoltaic capacity (100GW each) in the United States over the next three years, primarily to power ground-based data centers and space-based AI satellites, has drawn attention. Commercial space has become one of the strongest market themes recently, with space photovoltaics being the core beneficiary sector. Recent catalysts for the commercial space sector have been frequent: on the policy front, from the official establishment of the National Space Administration's Commercial Space Department to the official release of the "National Space Administration Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)", the industry's development has received top-level support. On the demand side, the large-scale networking of low-orbit satellite constellations is steadily advancing, and the global competitive landscape for low-orbit frequency and orbital resources, which operates on a "first-come, first-served" basis, is accelerating; the industry is transitioning from a "0 to 1" breakthrough phase to a "1 to N" volume expansion phase. On the capital front, five companies primarily engaged in launch vehicles—LandSpace, CAS Space, Galactic Energy, Space Tianbing, and iSpace—have all initiated IPO processes, stimulating the capital market to increase sector valuations and liquidity. Driven by multiple catalysts from policy, demand, and capital, commercial space has become one of the strongest market themes recently. The large-scale development of scenarios such as low-orbit satellite networking and the implementation of space computing power within commercial space has opened up vast demand potential for space photovoltaics. As the core energy foundation for the large-scale and commercial development of commercial space, it has also attracted close attention from the capital market.
Musk's specific implementation plans for space photovoltaics are one of the core catalysts driving the rise in sector stock prices. As a global innovation leader in both commercial space and new energy, Musk's statements regarding space photovoltaics have gradually shifted from early conceptual remarks towards specific implementation plans, continuously refining the layout of Tesla and SpaceX in the space photovoltaic field across multiple dimensions including technology R&D, capacity building, and scenario implementation. This time at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Musk proposed clear capacity targets, further boosting capital market confidence in the commercial implementation of space photovoltaics, subsequently leading to a significant 9.57% surge the next day for the Photovoltaic ETF (159857).
From being down-to-earth to looking up at the stars, the evolution of application scenarios is driving changes in technological pathways and capacity expansion. Transitioning from the down-to-earth application of ground-based photovoltaics to the star-gazing layout of space-based photovoltaics, the photovoltaic industry has achieved a cross-dimensional leap in its application scenarios. This change not only spurs iterative upgrades of the technological system but also brings about demand for incremental capacity expansion on a global scale. After undergoing four iterations of technological pathways—silicon solar cells, single-junction gallium arsenide solar cells, multi-junction gallium arsenide solar cells, and thin-film gallium arsenide solar cells—the space photovoltaic sector has now formed a development landscape dominated by gallium arsenide technology, with increasing penetration of P-type heterojunction and accelerated R&D in perovskite tandem technology. In the future, as demand from downstream scenarios like low-orbit satellites and space computing power expands, it will further drive the industry's large-scale deployment of dedicated production lines for space photovoltaics, such as ultra-thin P-type HJT and perovskite tandem technologies, while also promoting targeted capacity expansion in supporting segments like radiation-resistant packaging.
Investment recommendation: It is advised to focus on Junda Shares, Risen Energy, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, Maxwell Technologies, Jingjiawei Chuang, Autowell, and Shuangliang Energy Saving. Risk analysis: The pace of technological advancement and commercialization in commercial space may be slower than expected; the progress of phasing out outdated industry capacity may be hindered, leading to price recovery falling short of expectations; industry demand growth may not meet expectations.
Comments