The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations has led President Trump to adopt a strategy of prolonging the conflict, marking a new phase in the dispute and further clouding the prospects for the already deadlocked nuclear talks. Reports from US media on the 28th indicate that President Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a long-term blockade of Iran.
During multiple meetings, including a session in the White House Situation Room on Monday, Trump explicitly chose to continue pressuring Iran's economy and oil exports by blockading its ports, aiming to force Tehran to make concessions on the nuclear issue. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated that the blockade is pushing Iran to the "brink of collapse."
This hardline stance continues to exert pressure on global energy markets. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level since the conflict began, placing upward pressure on oil prices. Rising US domestic gasoline prices are subsequently impacting Trump's approval ratings and casting a shadow over Republican prospects in the midterm elections.
Trump currently faces three options, each with significant costs: resuming bombing campaigns, accepting Iran's proposal to exit the situation, or maintaining the blockade. After assessment, he concluded that the risks associated with the first two options outweigh those of continuing the blockade.
While renewed military strikes could further weaken Iran, Tehran would likely retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, thereby increasing the cost of war. Unilaterally ending the blockade would mean accepting the proposal Iran put forward last weekend—a plan that allows Tehran to set its own negotiation terms, which the White House believes would undermine the US's leverage on the nuclear issue.
Although maintaining the blockade does not promise a quick victory, a senior US official stated that it has clearly severely damaged Iran's economy. Iran is facing storage pressures from a large volume of unsold oil and has already initiated new signals for engagement with Washington.
Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution and an Iran expert, noted, "Iran is calculating whether its ability to withstand and circumvent the blockade can outlast the US's willingness to prevent a broader energy crisis or even a global recession."
Despite earlier White House expectations that US-Iran negotiations would resume last weekend in Pakistan, the talks have now stalled. Iran informed mediators on Monday that it requires several days to consult with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei before presenting a revised proposal. However, regional mediators are skeptical that Iran's updated plan will lead to a breakthrough. Iranian officials insist that Washington abandon what they call "maximum pressure" demands while maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A core demand Trump is currently unwilling to relinquish is that Iran commit to pausing uranium enrichment for at least 20 years, followed by accepting related restrictions. On Monday, he determined that Iran's proposal—which suggested reopening the Strait of Hormuz in three stages while leaving the nuclear issue for the final phase—demonstrates that Tehran is not negotiating in good faith.
Eric Brewer, a former senior US intelligence analyst on Iran, commented, "I'm not surprised he didn't accept this deal because it doesn't address the nuclear issue at all. Why accept Iran's proposal when you're still waiting to see if the blockade will inflict serious economic damage on Iran?"
Nico Lange, Director of the German Institute for Risk Analysis and International Security and former Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defense, pointed out, "Both sides seem to believe their judgment is correct and that time is on their side."
Trump is also facing conflicting advice from within his own circles. Allies like Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are publicly urging the White House to maintain pressure on Tehran, while other business figures close to the President worry that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or an escalation of hostilities could further harm the economy, creating a political liability ahead of the midterm elections.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted another layer of complexity in a media interview on Monday, noting that internal power struggles within Iran are hindering any diplomatic efforts. Rubio stated, "Our negotiators aren't just negotiating with the Iranians; those Iranians then have to negotiate with another set of Iranians to figure out what they can agree to, what they can offer, what they are willing to do, and even who they are willing to meet with."
Simultaneously, US officials recognize that as the blockade tightens, Iran may seek to force Washington into a choice between escalating the conflict or making concessions. This could include resuming attacks on regional energy infrastructure or targeting US naval assets enforcing the blockade. According to The Wall Street Journal, some US officials have begun to believe that this eight-week-long conflict may ultimately result in neither a nuclear agreement nor a resumption of full-scale war.
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