On April 24th, initial jobless claims in the United States saw a slight increase last week but remained at historically healthy levels for recent years. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that for the week ending April 18th, initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 214,000, slightly higher than the analyst expectation of 210,000. The data indicates that while initial claims have modestly rebounded, they are still within the low range seen over the past year, suggesting that corporate layoff activities remain limited. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, increased slightly by 750 to 210,750. For the week ending April 11th, continuing jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 1.82 million, with the overall level also staying within a historically healthy range.
Meanwhile, Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 1.8% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month it has fallen below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. This was primarily due to effective government fuel subsidies offsetting the impact of energy price shocks stemming from Middle East conflicts. The latest official data showed that core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, edged up to 1.8% from 1.6% in February, matching the median market forecast. Another core-core index, which excludes both fresh food and energy prices, increased 2.4% year-on-year, down slightly from 2.5% in February. Objectively, Japan's March inflation data reflects the effectiveness of short-term policy interventions alongside persistent medium-term cost pressures. The stickiness of core indicators suggests underlying demand-side support remains, with future trends depending on the extent of geopolitical risk mitigation, corporate pricing power, and wage growth momentum. Policies will need to maintain flexibility to achieve stable inflation targets.
Key data to watch today include the UK's monthly retail sales figure for March, Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for April, Canada's monthly retail sales data for February, and the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April.
Gold/USD Gold trended lower yesterday, closing slightly down for the day, with the current exchange rate hovering around 4677. The primary factor pressuring gold was the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, which was buoyed by safe-haven demand amid stalled Middle East negotiations. However, the downward movement was limited by weaker-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims data released during the period and renewed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Today, attention is on resistance near 4750, with support found around 4600.
USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair moved higher yesterday, recording a slight daily gain, with the current exchange rate trading around 159.70. The main driver behind the pair's ascent was the continued rise in the U.S. dollar index, supported by persistent market risk aversion. Additionally, expectations that the Bank of Japan would maintain its current policy stance in April also provided some support for the pair. Nevertheless, concerns over potential renewed intervention in the currency market by Japanese authorities capped the pair's upside. Today, focus is on resistance near 160.50, with support located around 159.00.
USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair advanced yesterday, breaking through the 1.3700 level to hit a 5-day high, currently trading around 1.3710. The primary reason for the pair's gain was the strength of the U.S. dollar index, which approached the 99.00 mark, supported by safe-haven buying. However, the continued climb in crude oil prices limited the pair's upward momentum. Today, resistance near 1.3800 is in focus, with support around 1.3600.
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