Spot Gold: On November 2, gold accelerated its decline last Friday, with spot gold closing near $3,875 per ounce. The weekly candle formed a large bearish bar, breaking below the $4,000 and $3,900 thresholds and touching a low of around $3,870, marking a recent new low.
At Monday's open, it is not appropriate to directly conclude that a bottom has formed. A more reasonable view is that the bearish trend remains intact, and short-term technical rebounds may occur due to severely oversold conditions. After any rebound, the focus should remain on observing resistance at higher levels.
The daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with price trading below the short-term moving averages. MACD is expanding below the zero axis, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. RSI has entered deep oversold territory, suggesting a short-term need for repair. The $3,870 level is the key dividing line after the open; only if it holds can a rebound condition be established.
Key Levels: Resistance: $3,920/$3,950; Support: $3,850/$3,820. Morning trading ideas: Aggressive short at $3,912/$3,922, conservative short at $3,945/$3,955, target $3,870 and hold if broken! Aggressive long at $3,857/$3,847, conservative long at $3,822/$3,812, target $3,900 and hold if broken! [GOLD dividing line: $3,900 per ounce! The above analysis is merely logical deduction of market conditions and does not constitute investment advice.]
WTI Crude Oil: Today, international crude oil is overall in a state of high-level broad consolidation with clear event-driven characteristics. WTI crude oil is latest around $102.9 per barrel, while Brent crude is around $113.5 per barrel, with intraday highs once reaching $104.99 and $114.29 respectively.
Crude oil is not simply in a one-way uptrend in the short term, but rather in a pattern of "geopolitical support at the bottom, news disturbances, and increased range-bound fluctuations." WTI crude closed near $103 last Friday. Over the weekend, affected by shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and repeated Middle East tensions, volatility increased significantly after the open. Brent crude is also relatively strong, but the dark pool once saw a pullback, indicating that risk premium funds are divided at high levels.
From a technical structure perspective, WTI is still running above multiple moving averages, and the short-term bullish structure has not yet been broken; however, the intraday pullback after a spike shows heavy selling pressure above $105. Brent, meanwhile, is repeatedly contesting the $111-$114 range. Further upside requires continued geopolitical news support; otherwise, high-level consolidation is likely to form.
Key Levels: Resistance at $105-$107, support at $102-$100! Morning trading ideas: Aggressive short at $104.5/$105.0, conservative short at $106.5/$107.0, target $102.0 and hold if broken! Aggressive long at $101.7/$101.2, conservative long at $100.3/$99.8, target $105.5 and hold if broken! [WTI dividing line: $102.0 per barrel! Note: The above is market deduction and does not constitute definitive buy or sell advice.]
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