General Motors delivered the kind of quarter investors wanted. Now it is up to investors to evaluate GM stock’s valuation multiple.
GM reported third-quarter earnings per share of $2.96 and an operating profit of $4.1 billion from sales of $48.8 billion. Wall Street was looking for EPS of $2.38 and an operating profit of $3.3 billion from sales of $44.7 billion, according to FactSet.
A year ago, GM reported EPS of $2.28 and an operating profit of $3.6 billion from sales of $44.1 billion.
GM stock added 9.8% on Tuesday, closing at $53.73 a share, marking its best post-earnings performance on record.
“We grew U.S. retail market share with above-average pricing, well-managed inventories, and below-average incentives,” said CEO Mary Barra in her quarterly letter to shareholders, adding GM was also on track to meet 2024 targets for electric-vehicle production and profitability.
GM still expects to manufacture about 200,000 EVs in 2024. Through the end of September, it sold about 70,000 EVs in the U.S. EV production and sales don’t match exactly. GM also sells EVs in Canada.
“I’m proud that GM is delivering our best vehicles ever with strong financial results. But I want to be clear that we are not mistaking progress for winning. Competition is fierce, and the regulatory environment will keep getting tougher,” wrote Barra. She is focused on improving profit margins in the traditional business while making EVs profitable on an operating-profit basis “as quickly as possible.”
Along with a solid quarter, GM increased its full-year financial guidance. Management now expects to generate between $14 billion and $15 billion in 2024 operating profit, up from a prior range of $13 billion to $15 billion. Through September, GM had generated $12.4 billion. Wall Street currently projects a fourth-quarter operating profit of $2.4 billion.
GM also increased its forecast for free cash flow. The midpoint of its range of forecasts is now $13 billion, up from prior guidance of $10.5 billion. A strong third-quarter free cash flow of $5.8 billion drove the increase. Wall Street was projecting a free cash flow of $3 billion for the quarter.
Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a preview report that GM’s guidance looked conservative and that the second-half numbers could turn out to be better than expected. He was right. Rosner still rates the company at Hold with no target for the stock price. Slowing sales growth and falling new car prices are weighing on investor sentiment.
BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello called the quarter strong amid a “choppy demand and pricing” environment. He rates share Buy and has a $59 price target.
Slowing demand growth and falling new-car pricing are still headwinds for the company. They are two reasons that GM shares trade for about five times estimated 2025 earnings, the low end of GM’s historical trading range, according to Rosner. Historically, GM shares trade for closer to six or seven times next year’s earnings.
Shares could move back to that range based on the strength of GM results, even if the car business still has its hurdles.
Options markets imply GM stock will move about 5% up or down following earnings. Shares have moved about 5.5% up or down following the past four quarterly reports. GM stock has moved up twice and down twice over that span.
Coming into Tuesday’s trading, GM shares were up about 36% year to date. That is much better than Ford Motor shares, which were down about 11%.
The biggest difference between the two might be share repurchases. GM has bought back some $16 billion worth of stock in the past few months, significant for a company with a market value of about $55 billion.
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