On September 22, 2026, Bitcoin crossed the $84,000 threshold and climbed back above its 365-day moving average, a technical recovery that CryptoQuant has officially classified as a critical confirmation of a new bull market cycle. This breakout places the asset's valuation 6.4% above its annual average level, signaling the end of the correction phase and the return of capital inflows.
From a technical breakdown perspective, the move validates a shift in market structure, with spot trading conditions proving more robust than the derivative-driven rallies of recent months. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also turned positive, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, emphasized that a sustained hold above the 365-day moving average remains the ultimate quantitative benchmark for confirming a bull market.
Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that as long as the price holds within the $83,000 to $84,000 support zone, the next upside targets are set at $88,000 and $90,000. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 68.5 points, reflecting short-term overheating in the market. A period of consolidation is expected to follow, allowing the asset to build momentum before attempting to challenge higher resistance levels.
Macro capital flows and institutional perspectives further support this trend. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that institutional investors frequently use the 365-day indicator to gauge macroeconomic direction, and their bull/bear cycle definitions rely on the gap between the profit and loss index and this moving average. While a significant number of traders in the derivatives market maintain long positions, on-chain data serves as a cautionary signal: if the price falls below the immediate support at $83,000, a pullback toward $81,000 or $78,500 is possible.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $433 million, with institutional holdings continuing to expand. Notably, Bitcoin had not been able to consistently trade above the 365-day moving average since November 2025, making this breakout a milestone with considerable cyclical significance.
The key to future movement lies in the ability to consolidate above the $90,000 level. CryptoQuant's models predict that if this zone holds as support, the market could advance toward targets of $95,000 to $100,000. Current market attention is focused on the weekly close on September 27, as well as the settlement of quarterly Bitcoin options expiring on September 25, 2026. These time points will determine whether Bitcoin can solidify its newly reclaimed support level and establish the sustainability of a renewed uptrend.
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