GTHT released a research report stating that Elon Musk's proposal to deploy 100GW of solar-powered AI satellites annually, coupled with low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and space computing power, is driving demand for space photovoltaics. In terms of segmented materials, in the short to medium term, silicon-based P-type HJT technology already has mass production and delivery experience. Its low-temperature symmetric process and ultra-thin silicon wafers offer lightweight potential, and ongoing advancements in anti-radiation solutions position it to penetrate short-cycle LEO missions. Long-term, perovskite tandem cells hold advantages in high efficiency and flexible thin-film applications, along with potential for radiation and environmental adaptation. If breakthroughs in encapsulation longevity and large-area uniformity are achieved, they could become the mainstream technological pathway. GTHT's main views are as follows.
Elon Musk's plan for annual deployment of 100GW solar AI satellites, driven by LEO satellites and space computing needs, is fueling demand for space-based solar power. Space offers direct utilization of solar energy, extended power generation periods, and high potential for stable and available energy acquisition. Furthermore, orbital platforms primarily utilize radiative cooling for thermal management, potentially solving heat dissipation issues faced by terrestrial data centers, thereby diversifying the application scenarios for space photovoltaics. Regarding LEO satellites, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) operates on a "first-come, first-served" basis for frequency and orbital rights. The LEO orbit can accommodate approximately 60,000 satellites at most, and Starlink has already applied for 42,000. The world is entering a critical window of "intensive launches and network formation," leading to rapid expansion of LEO constellations. This expansion directly boosts demand for power systems, including solar arrays/cells, deployable array structures, energy storage, and power management. In terms of space computing, Musk has proposed the concept of space-based AI computing centers, planning to leverage Starship rockets to deploy 100GW of solar AI satellites annually.
The current mainstream technology for space photovoltaics is gallium arsenide-based, but P-type HJT and perovskite tandems are expected to become incremental technological pathways in the future. Multi-junction gallium arsenide cells are the dominant technology currently, with triple-junction cells achieving 30% AM0 efficiency in mass production. However, complex processes, high costs, and capacity constraints limit their scalability for large LEO constellations. In the short to medium term, silicon-based P-type HJT, with its existing mass-production experience, offers lightweight potential through its low-temperature symmetric process and ultra-thin wafers. Continued progress in anti-radiation solutions makes it suitable for penetrating short-cycle LEO missions. Long-term, perovskite tandem cells boast high efficiency and flexible thin-film advantages, alongside potential for radiation and environmental resilience. Should engineering breakthroughs in encapsulation lifespan and large-area uniformity be realized, they are poised to become a mainstream technological route.
The commercialization of the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating, with companies actively exploring opportunities in the space economy. DRINDA (02865) has formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shangyi Photovoltaics, making an equity investment as a strategic shareholder. The two parties will deeply integrate industrial and scenario resources to collaborate on the application of perovskite cell technology in space energy. They will establish synergistic mechanisms covering technology R&D, on-orbit verification, industrial implementation, and application scenario expansion. For investment targets, the report recommends Mayer (300751.SZ), Jiejia Weichuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), and Laplace (688726.SH). Beneficiary companies mentioned include Dr. Laser (300776.SZ).
Risks include potential slower-than-expected development of the commercial space industry and slower-than-expected progress in new photovoltaic cell technologies.
Comments