September saw a clear stabilizing and recovering trend in the catering sector, with a notable improvement in the performance of large-scale catering enterprises.
In September, national catering revenue reached 460.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, a gain of 1.0 percentage point over August. Revenue for catering units above the designated size came in at 141.3 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year, turning positive after a 0.7% decline in August. For the January-September period, national catering revenue totaled 4,196.9 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, accounting for 11.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods.
The concentrated release of Mid-Autumn Festival reunion spending, the accelerated monetization of the "ticket stub economy," and continued policy support across three dimensions — cultivating market entities, supplying capital, and expanding consumption scenarios — have further strengthened signs of the industry stabilizing and recovering. However, the cumulative growth rate for units above the designated size (1.3%) remains below the overall industry rate (2.4%), indicating that leading enterprises have not yet fully emerged from the pressure zone, and the industry is still in a phase of structural repair within a weak recovery channel.
Overall market operating characteristics: growth stabilizing and recovering, designated-size units turning positive
1. Catering growth rebounded to 2.1%, cumulative growth remained stable. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 19, in September 2026, national catering revenue reached 460.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year; revenue for catering units above the designated size was 141.3 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year. For January-September, national catering revenue totaled 4,196.9 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year; revenue for catering units above the designated size was 1,252.8 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, September catering revenue growth was 1.0 percentage point higher than August's 1.1%. The cumulative growth rate for January-September was 2.4%, flat with January-August, indicating that cumulative growth has stabilized. Analysis by the China Cuisine Association shows that the January-September national catering revenue growth rate fell 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the designated-size catering revenue growth rate fell 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, with the declines narrowing significantly compared with January-August (down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points), indicating that downward pressure on the industry has eased to some extent.
2. Designated-size catering turned positive, with marginal improvement at leading enterprises. The most positive signal in September was that revenue for catering units above the designated size grew 2.0% year-on-year, a sharp increase of 2.7 percentage points from the 0.7% decline in August, with its growth rate (2.0%) now roughly on par with the overall industry rate (2.1%), significantly narrowing the gap. Looking back at the full-year trend, the growth rate for designated-size enterprises went from 1.8% in January-June, to 0.0% in July, to -0.7% in August, and then to 2.0% in September, showing a V-shaped recovery of "first declining, then rising," indicating that after sustained pressure from rigid costs, price competition, and more rational consumer behavior, leading catering companies have seen a temporary easing of operating pressure. However, the cumulative growth rate for designated-size units in January-September (1.3%) remains below the overall industry rate (2.4%), meaning leading enterprises have not yet fully emerged from the pressure zone, and the sustainability of the recovery still needs to be observed.
3. Share of total retail sales remained stable, with service consumption continuing to drive growth. In January-September, national catering revenue accounted for 11.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods. In September, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,243.3 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year. Catering revenue growth (2.1%) continued to outpace both commodity retail growth (1.0%) and overall retail sales growth (1.1%), confirming that service consumption, represented by catering, remains an important engine driving consumption growth.
Policy environment: cultivating entities, supplying capital, and expanding scenarios forming a combined force
In September, multiple departments issued documents intensively around three directions — the growth of business entities, the supply of financial services, and the expansion of consumption scenarios — forming a policy synergy that connects both the supply and demand sides.
1. The "15th Five-Year Plan" for small and medium-sized enterprises was issued, consolidating the foundation of business entities. On September 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and nine other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Promoting the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises," laying out systematic arrangements across 21 areas, from encouraging the founding of SMEs, stabilizing jobs and expanding employment, tiered cultivation of high-quality enterprises, and enhancing technological innovation capabilities, to accelerating digital and intelligent transformation, green transformation, integrated development of large, medium, and small enterprises, strengthening support for finance, talent, and data elements, and optimizing the business environment. Catering is one of the industries with the highest concentration of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. The policy points most relevant to the industry in the plan are concentrated in three areas: first, accelerating digital-intelligent and green transformation, providing direction for digital store operations, intelligent supply chain scheduling, and energy-saving renovations; second, strengthening financial support, talent support, and data element support, directly addressing the three long-standing pain points of small and medium-sized catering enterprises — difficulty in financing, high labor costs, and weak digital capabilities; third, promoting integrated development and cluster development of large, medium, and small enterprises, opening up space for collaboration between chain leaders and upstream and downstream suppliers, as well as clustered growth of local specialty catering industries. As the plan is implemented, the development constraints of small and medium-sized catering enterprises — "small, scattered, and weak" — are expected to gradually ease, and the willingness and ability of the industry to operate in a standardized and branded manner will rise simultaneously.
2. Financial support guidelines for the service industry were implemented, precisely optimizing catering credit models. On September 25, the People's Bank of China and seven other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Expanding and Upgrading the Service Industry," which explicitly states under "improving financial services for the life service industry": optimize credit models around information such as transaction flows, orders, and rent for service industry entities including catering, improve the convenience of fund use and repayment, and meet the differentiated funding needs of business entities; enhance the availability of financing in community service scenarios, support the development of the 15-minute convenient living circle, and provide financial support for improving quality and efficiency in county-level commerce. The key breakthrough of the policy lies in incorporating high-frequency operating data such as "transaction flows, orders, and rent" into credit logic, changing the traditional credit path that overly relied on collateral, which is particularly significant for catering enterprises that lack heavy assets and have clearly fluctuating cash flows. Combined with the loan interest subsidy policy for service industry entities already implemented in August, both financing availability and financing costs are improving simultaneously, further loosening funding constraints on chain enterprises' expansion into lower-tier markets and densification of community stores, with channel-based leaders and regional chains benefiting fastest.
3. Sports event economy policies were intensified, opening new scenarios for "following events to seek out fine food." On September 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Developing Sports Events to Stimulate Consumption Vitality," which in the section on "deepening the potential of integrating sports events with culture and tourism" proposed supporting brand activities such as "traveling with sports events" and "enjoying exciting events, savoring Chinese cuisine." The event economy is characterized by instantaneous gathering of people and high consumption conversion rates. Embedding food into the event consumption chain opens an "event-driven" incremental channel for the catering industry: on one hand, it drives concentrated release of catering foot traffic and spending per customer at event locations; on the other hand, it promotes the binding of local specialty food with sports culture IP, providing a vehicle for regional catering brands to gain broader exposure.
Market highlights: Mid-Autumn reunion consumption leads, ticket stub economy monetization accelerates
1. Mid-Autumn reunion dining led the way, with instant retail capturing new "home gathering" demand. The Mid-Autumn holiday (September 25-27) was the core driving force behind September catering consumption. Big data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide grew 6.1% compared with the same period of the previous lunar year, while foot traffic and turnover at 78 key pedestrian streets (business districts) under monitoring grew 6.4% and 5.1%, respectively. At the local level, Beijing's 127 key monitored enterprises achieved cumulative sales of 4.04 billion yuan during the three-day holiday, up 20% year-on-year, with the catering sector growing 10.5%; Sichuan's Department of Commerce monitored 129 key catering enterprises across the province, which achieved revenue of 760 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year; Shaanxi's key monitored catering enterprises recorded revenue of 37.1706 million yuan, up 10.62% year-on-year, with dine-in and takeout growing 9.59% and 19.06%, respectively; Henan's key monitored catering enterprises saw operating revenue rise 9.7% year-on-year; Hebei, based on UnionPay Merchant Services big data estimates, recorded catering consumption of 1.02 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year. Structural changes in holiday scenarios deserve attention: first, reservations for "reunion dinners" were highly concentrated. Data from Haidilao showed that orders booked for dining on Mid-Autumn Festival day accounted for more than 65% of total Mid-Autumn holiday reservations, with dining times concentrated in the evening and tables for three or more people accounting for more than 80% of bookings. Second, "home gatherings" boosted instant retail. In Kunming, instant retail of food categories grew 37.13% year-on-year, with hot pot ingredients, river seafood, and fresh vegetables becoming popular home-delivery categories, as family gatherings shifted from "queuing at stores" to a dual-track model of "dine-in plus home delivery." Third, mooncake consumption shifted from "holiday necessity" to "quality enjoyment," with small-sized, multi-flavor, low-sugar, and low-oil products gaining popularity. Fourth, themed food markets became a core lever for drawing traffic to business districts — Beijing's Aoyuan International Carbohydrate Festival drove catering consumption in the Asian Games Village business district up 82% year-on-year, while HuaiFang Wanda's "Fengtai Burger Festival" boosted catering consumption in the Huaixin business district by 3.7 times year-on-year.
2. "Ticket stub plus" citywide linkage accelerated the monetization of sports and performance traffic. In September, the traffic conversion model of the event and performance economy clearly upgraded, evolving from August's single-point linkage of "events plus night markets" into a citywide consumption chain using "ticket stubs" as a pass. Hubei's "Chao Super" was the most typical example: in Yichang, for just the first five home matches, revenue from markets around the stadium reached 8.609 million yuan, driving citywide consumption of 129.7 million yuan; local specialties such as Hesheng native chicken soup and Chongyang fried dough twists opened up sales channels through the events. In Shaoyang, Hunan, the "Xiang Super" rolled out 25 "second venues" across the region and built a "1+25+N" viewing system; the four home matches held so far attracted nearly 800,000 spectators, and after Youa International Mall introduced "ticket stub linkage," amusement and catering foot traffic rose by more than 10% month-on-month. At Jiandong Noodle Shop near the Xishi Basketball Center in Zhuji, Zhejiang, on match days the shop made as many as 400-plus bowls of noodles a day, with turnover about three times the usual level. The scope of ticket stub applicability also expanded from sports events to music performances: in Changting, Fujian, holders of Min Super ticket stubs could taste local pork kidney soup for free and receive beer and ice cream, lifting both foot traffic and turnover at local small shops; Hebi, Henan, used the 2026 National Pickleball Championship to launch a consumption carnival, with more than 590 partner merchants participating in "one ticket across the city," offering dine-in discounts, price cuts, and buy-one-get-one deals with ticket stubs; Shandong's Dezhou hosted the first Grand Canal Music Festival on September 19, with ticket stubs unlocking discounts across ten categories including catering, accommodation, and cultural tourism; Jingzhou issued food consumption vouchers for three consecutive days during "Chao Super" home matches, setting four tiers from 50-minus-10 to 400-minus-80 and covering offline dine-in stores; Hangzhou paired the Zhejiang BA opening game with the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Bowls · Delicious Hangzhou" food market, where 20 high-star hotels prepared and sold food on site and simultaneously launched online coupon packages. "Watch games by day, stroll streets by night" is becoming a common consumption rhythm in many places, with event and performance traffic effectively settling into chain consumption across catering, accommodation, and retail.
Trend outlook: policy mix and scenario innovation to support steady recovery in the fourth quarter
1. Stabilization signals are clear, and the most pressure-heavy phase is passing. In September, the industry showed clear stabilization signals: catering revenue growth rose 1.0 percentage point from August to 2.1%, revenue growth for catering units above the designated size turned from -0.7% in August to 2.0%, and the January-September cumulative growth rate was flat with January-August while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, indicating that the industry's most pressure-heavy phase is passing. However, it must be clearly recognized that the January-September cumulative growth rate for designated-size units (1.3%) remains below the overall industry rate (2.4%), leading enterprises have not yet fully emerged from the pressure zone, and although the exit of small and medium-sized merchants is slowing, it is still continuing. Industry repair remains structural and marginal.
2. Policy dividends are accelerating, and operating pain points are expected to ease substantially. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, multiple positive policy factors are accumulating rapidly. The "15th Five-Year Plan for Promoting the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" makes systematic arrangements around digital-intelligent transformation, green transformation, and support for finance, talent, and data elements. Combined with the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Expanding and Upgrading the Service Industry," which incorporates high-frequency operating data such as transaction flows, orders, and rent into credit logic, the three long-standing pain points facing catering enterprises — difficulty in financing, high labor costs, and weak digital capabilities — are expected to ease substantially, and funding constraints on chain expansion into lower-tier markets and densification of community stores will be further loosened. The combined effects of county-level consumption policies, fiscal interest subsidy policies, and optimized financial credit will gradually emerge in the fourth quarter.
3. Scenario innovation will continue to deepen, with the ticket stub economy extending from sports events to the entire consumption landscape. The "Opinions on Developing Sports Events to Stimulate Consumption Vitality" proposed supporting "traveling with sports events" and "enjoying exciting events, savoring Chinese cuisine." The ticket stub economy is extending from sports events to performances and festivals, settling instantaneous flows of people into chain consumption across catering, accommodation, and retail. Scenario innovations such as the dual-track "dine-in plus home delivery" model, themed food markets drawing traffic, and holiday reunion consumption will continue to inject incremental growth into the catering market.
4. Seasonal recovery and quality consumption will provide support, deepening the transition toward quality and efficiency. On the seasonal front, demand for essential categories such as autumn and winter hot pot and warm foods is returning. At the 22nd China Hot Pot Industry Conference held in September, the China Cuisine Association pointed out that hot pot is at a critical stage of "transitioning from scale expansion to value reconstruction," and that digital-intelligent upgrading, supply chain optimization, cultural inheritance, and expansion into lower-tier markets are important paths for the industry to break through and renew itself. The "dual-wheel drive" of mass essential consumption and experiential consumption, combined with instant retail capturing home gatherings, is expected to support a steady recovery in the catering market in the fourth quarter. Overall, in the September catering market, Mid-Autumn reunion consumption underpinned the base, the ticket stub economy and food festivals opened incremental scenario growth, and policies to cultivate small and medium-sized enterprises and financial support eased operating pressure, together forming the support for the industry's stabilization and recovery. However, leading enterprises have not yet fully emerged from the pressure zone, and industry repair remains structural and marginal. The catering industry is steadily transitioning from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, with policy empowerment, scenario innovation, and quality upgrading forming the main lines of future development. As the fourth-quarter consumption peak arrives and policy effects continue to be released, the catering market is expected to achieve more sustainable growth through improvements in "quality," providing solid support for the overall consumer market's recovery and improvement for the full year.
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