Corn: Neutral Yesterday's arrivals totaled 612 trucks, a decrease of 119 trucks from the previous day, with an estimated operating volume of 43,000 tons; rail arrivals were 46 wagons (approximately 2,760 tons), and 5 ships were operating at the port. Overall, bullish sentiment remains high. Although upside price resistance is evident, there are no signs of a pullback within the week, and prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility.
The combined inventory at the four northern ports is 1.497 million tons, up 145,000 tons week-on-week. Northern port inventories continue to rise, while southern port inventories are being drawn down, indicating a clear divergence in regional inventory structures. On one hand, arrival pressure persists in the north; on the other hand, feed demand and restocking activities in the south provide some price support. Regional price differentials are causing market disturbances but have not yet provided clear directional guidance.
Corn imports for 2025 reached 2.6487 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80.58%. Import supply has contracted significantly. The pressure from import substitutes has weakened, providing medium-term support for domestic corn. However, the market has partially digested this positive factor in the short term, and its marginal impact is fading.
View Summary: For the corn 03 main contract, watch for support near 2250, with resistance maintained at 2330.
Soybean Meal: Neutral Lacking marginal drivers, CBOT soybeans are trading in a volatile pattern. Forecasts indicate favorable rainfall conditions across most of Brazil over the next week, which is beneficial for crop growth; precipitation in Argentina's Córdoba province helps improve soil moisture, but most of Santa Fe and Buenos Aires provinces are only receiving scattered showers. The potential for drought development warrants attention.
Domestic crushers' soybean and soybean meal inventories are showing seasonal drawdown characteristics, reflecting previous active stock-building by downstream enterprises. Recent firming and strength in the U.S. market provide cost-side support for meal prices. Concurrently, market concerns over potentially tight soybean supplies in certain phases and uncertainty regarding the pace of reserve releases have also contributed to price resilience. However, crush margins for distant Brazilian shipments appear relatively attractive, which may encourage commercial crushers to actively purchase vessels. If pressure from subsequent South American arrivals materializes, the risk of a price decline squeezing crush margins remains.
View Summary: Adopt a range-trading approach. The 05 contract is expected to trade within a range of 2700-2850 yuan/ton today.
Eggs: Neutral Spot prices in main producing areas are rising. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei is approximately 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day. According to SCI data, the total 2025 chick placements decreased by approximately 42.2 million birds compared to 2024, but still remain at a relatively high level of about 1.015 billion birds. High placement levels may significantly slow the pace of industry capacity reduction, potentially prolonging the time needed for a sustained rise in the spot price center. In the short-term game, Spring Festival restocking supports a temporary rebound, but caution is advised for post-holiday correction risks amidst high-level volatility. For medium-to-long-term positioning, anchor on the mid-term logic of declining breeding stock. Once the capacity reduction trend is established, watch for opportunities to position in far-month contracts at low levels. Monitor structural differences around the Spring Festival; the steepened Contango structure pre-holiday faces potential invalidation, with a possible reversal post-holiday.
Trading Strategy: The basis game in near-month contracts continues. The potential return of hedging pressure may significantly affect the premium of far-month contracts.
Live Hogs: Neutral-Bearish Yesterday's average price in main producing regions was approximately 12.81 yuan/kg. Profits for both self-sufficient breeding and purchased piglet finishing have approached the breakeven point, indicating a significant alleviation of industry losses. The return to positive breeding profits and rising piglet prices signal short-term market improvement. Guidance from newborn piglet data suggests the overarching theme of high supply is unlikely to change before Q2 2026. A slight sequential improvement in supply may occur in Q3 2026. Hog supply pressure is expected to persist in the first half of 2026, with a potential trend recovery likely waiting until the effects of capacity reduction become clearer in the second half. However, improved sentiment among breeders at the current juncture may hinder the capacity reduction path, potentially capping the upside for spot prices.
Trading Strategy: The pattern of weak supply and demand drivers is expected to continue in H1 2026. Focus on hedging opportunities in the 05 and 07 contracts.
Risk Warning: This information was prepared by the analyst team of the futures company's Research & Development Department. The information herein is derived from publicly available sources. CSC Futures strives for accuracy and reliability but makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is at your own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situations, or needs. Clients should assess whether any opinions or suggestions in this information suit their particular circumstances.
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