On January 20th, global precious metals markets continued their strong momentum, with the prices of gold and silver once again setting new historical records. As of 17:00 that day, spot London gold broke through $4,700 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4,730.09, marking a cumulative increase of over 9% since the start of the year; spot London silver climbed to a high of $95.457 per ounce, accumulating a surge of more than 33% year-to-date. Concurrently, aluminum prices also moved higher, with Shanghai aluminum and London aluminum prices showing significant increases following the trend of precious metals, intensifying industry discussions on the supply and demand dynamics of metal varieties. The Shanghai Futures Exchange simultaneously adjusted the trading margin requirements and daily price fluctuation limits for related contracts of copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures, further elevating market attention on these commodities.
Market focus on this trend spans multiple dimensions. Globally, easing monetary policy expectations are gradually heating up, and a weakening US Dollar Index is providing support for dollar-denominated metal prices. On the supply side, rigid constraints are becoming apparent, with China's primary aluminum industry hitting its capacity ceiling, while overseas aluminum projects face limitations from factors like power supply and infrastructure, hindering rapid output expansion. Demand from emerging sectors is notably driving growth, as industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, and AI data centers continue to boost demand for industrial metals like aluminum and copper. Precious metals, possessing both safe-haven and industrial attributes, are seeing their financial characteristics bolstered by ongoing central bank gold purchases, while demand from sectors like photovoltaics is highlighting the industrial value of silver.
Zhongyou Securities believes that the long-term logic of substituting gold for US Treasuries in asset allocation remains valid, and continuous inflows into ETFs will drive Western investors to continue buying gold ETFs. It is highly probable that the gold market trend will persist into 2026, with the potential for performance exceeding expectations. Declining silver inventories are creating tightness in the physical market, and the potential for some countries to treat it as a reserve asset could exacerbate physical shortages and increase price volatility, suggesting silver prices are likely to continue rising in 2026.
Guolian Minsheng Securities points out that escalating global geopolitical tensions are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals, sustaining the upward price trend. In the long term, the themes of central bank gold buying and a weakening US dollar credit system persist, indicating a clear upward trajectory for gold prices. Silver, with its dual industrial and financial attributes, benefits from sustained demand for photovoltaic silver use, and a boost in industrial demand is expected to trigger a catch-up rally in silver prices.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) states that the supply-demand gap for primary aluminum continues to widen, and coupled with the resonance of globally proactive fiscal and monetary policies, aluminum prices are expected to keep setting new highs. With costs remaining low, profit per ton of aluminum is likely to widen further as prices rise, giving primary aluminum companies room for upward revaluation during this price increase.
Related Industries: The nonferrous metals mining industry relies on reserves of resources like bauxite, gold ore, and copper ore for exploration and extraction, providing raw material support for subsequent smelting processes; its operational performance is directly tied to upstream mineral reserves and extraction costs.
The nonferrous metals smelting industry processes ore raw materials into finished metals like primary aluminum, gold, and cathode copper through electrolysis, smelting, and other processes; production capacity scale, energy costs, and technological proficiency are key determinants of a company's core competitiveness.
The nonferrous metals processing industry focuses on the deep processing of metal products, manufacturing end-use items such as aluminum profiles, copper foil, and gold jewelry, catering to downstream demand from construction, automotive, and electronics sectors; product value-added is significantly influenced by investment in R&D and technology.
The new energy supporting industry has rigid demand for metals like aluminum and copper in areas such as vehicle lightweighting for new energy cars and mounting structure fabrication for photovoltaic modules, leading to deep integration between producers of related supporting materials and the nonferrous metals supply chain.
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