On May 7, YUNJI (02670) saw its shares drop approximately 3.70% within the first five minutes of morning trading. Over the subsequent hour, the stock maintained a decline of around 3.50%. Just as the market anticipated YUNJI's first negative close after a series of gains, its share price began to rebound around 10:30 AM, turning positive within 15 minutes. By the end of the morning session, the stock had risen over 3%. After the afternoon session commenced, several large buy orders pushed the increase beyond 10%, with YUNJI ultimately closing up 12.14%. The day's turnover rate was 0.15%, with a trading volume of 91,600 shares.
Buoyed by the strong performance on May 7, YUNJI's stock price reached an all-time high of HK$358.40 during the morning session on May 8. However, unlike the previous day's pattern of opening lower and rising higher, the stock quickly retreated after peaking and fluctuated downward throughout the day, with an intraday decline reaching about 6%. A pullback from levels significantly above the 5-day moving average is not a positive signal for a stock that has surged 240% over three months. Does this indicate the end of a sustained rally driven by concentrated capital?
After two consecutive years of substantial gains, the Hang Seng Stock Connect Robotics Index (932599) has noticeably slowed its ascent this year. Year-to-date, the index has fallen 1.61%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has declined 7.35%. As a constituent not yet included in the Stock Connect scheme, YUNJI has significantly outperformed the more liquid robotics sector within Stock Connect, posting an extraordinary gain of 202.94% over the same period. Against the backdrop of a broader adjustment in Hong Kong's tech sector, YUNJI's stock performance has clearly decoupled from sector fluctuations.
Specifically, after hitting a low of HK$105.70 on February 13, YUNJI initiated its current upward trend. On February 27, following a 7.04% gain on high volume that touched the upper Bollinger Band, the stock began its first phase of acceleration, which included a run of nine consecutive positive closes. This phase concluded on March 17 with a high-volume drop of 8.99%, reflecting internal market divergence. Notably, YUNJI's nine-day rally coincided with a technical rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index after a deep correction, bringing it to the middle Bollinger Band.
YUNJI demonstrated technical strength by continuing to rise against the trend even as the Hang Seng Tech Index showed weakness and fluctuated, achieving new highs after periods of internal divergence. Following the sharp drop on March 17, YUNJI's stock price surged 13.82% the next day, continuing its climb along the 5-day moving average. Apart from some volatility in early April, the overall pullback was limited. During this period, the stock showed signs of being heavily concentrated by capital, consistently reaching new historical highs. Between April 9 and May 7, even brief periods of divergence were quickly resolved, with the stock strengthening again, displaying clear independence from the broader market, with notable resistance to declines and leadership in gains.
Currently, the push for Stock Connect inclusion appears to be a primary motivation behind this concentrated capital rally. After its listing on October 16 last year, YUNJI experienced a continuous rise in its stock price from November to early December, even recording ten consecutive positive sessions. However, due to low-level volatility in the first month after listing and the fact that it was already 92.47% of the way to the HK$105.15 billion average market capitalization threshold for the second 2025 Stock Connect review, the window for inclusion was compressed. Continuous overbought signals accelerated internal divergence, ultimately causing the stock to plummet after reaching a阶段性 high of HK$198 in December, with the month's cumulative decline reaching 15.83%. It concluded the second 2025 review period with an average daily market cap of HK$8.005 billion, failing to qualify for inclusion.
In 2026, driven by the current concentrated rally, YUNJI's average market capitalization during the new review period has reached HK$12.159 billion, far exceeding the HK$10.515 billion inclusion threshold. In other words, maintaining the current stock price level until the end of June this year would secure its inclusion. Furthermore, analyzing the distribution of share holdings, even with a year-to-date increase exceeding 200%, the concentration of holdings has maintained a low, dense peak pattern. Although there are signs of upward dispersion, the core concentrated holdings' cost remains stable around HK$115, significantly below the average cost of HK$162.40, indicating that major capital has acted as a stabilizing force without taking profits.
Regarding recent trading volume, after a period of minor sideways movement in April, YUNJI's stock price clearly accelerated in the latter part of the month. However, the daily trading volume during this significant price increase was noticeably lower than during the earlier phase. For instance, on April 29, the stock rose 12.26% on a volume of only 62,500 shares, whereas on March 18, a 13.82% gain was accompanied by a volume of 170,200 shares. This suggests that major holders remain in a state of high control.
With YUNJI's market capitalization and liquidity now meeting the inclusion criteria, the incentive for the capital driving the "inclusion push" to continue aggressively boosting the price may be significantly reduced. The pullback on May 8 could be a key turning point. Is the stock entering a "countdown to correction"?
Current market speculation around the robotics concept primarily focuses on two aspects: core technology and industrial commercialization. YUNJI's competitive barrier lies in its advantageous positioning for multi-scenario deployment of its robots. Data shows that by the end of 2025, YUNJI robots had been deployed in over 40,000 hotels, capturing 13.9% of the Chinese hotel market share. According to Frost & Sullivan, YUNJI holds the leading market share for robot service agents in China's hotel sector, exceeding the combined share of the second to fifth players.
Specifically, the company has entered over 40,000 hotels globally, as well as scenarios like hospitals, factories, shopping malls, apartments, and office buildings, with operations covering the Middle East, Americas, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand. This means YUNJI currently possesses access to 40,000 hotel physical entry points, 32,000 daily online devices, and scenario data accumulated from 750 million services. Additionally, the latest financial report shows a 925% growth in subscribers for YUNJI's HDOS digital system, a near-tripling of revenue from intelligent agent application services, and AI digital system revenue approaching 30% of the total. Compared to peers still relying on one-time robot sales, YUNJI's business model is shifting towards subscription-based services. As the only listed company in Hong Kong focused on robot service agents, with no direct competitors, its scarcity adds another layer of defense in a hot industry sector.
However, behind the conceptual hype, YUNJI's latest disclosed 2025 financial report shows revenue of RMB 300 million, a 23.1% increase from RMB 245 million year-on-year. Revenue breakdown indicates RMB 213 million (70.8% of revenue) came from robots and functional kits, while RMB 87.93 million (29.2%) came from AI digital systems. Revenue is primarily hotel-based, with hotel-related revenue amounting to RMB 244 million, constituting 81% of the total in 2025. On the profit side, YUNJI reported an annual loss of RMB 295 million for 2025, widening from a loss of RMB 185 million the previous year. The corresponding adjusted net loss was RMB 113 million, more than triple the RMB 27.56 million loss from a year earlier.
Although the robot service agent business is still in its development phase, and financial metrics only partially reflect its early-stage performance, a core issue is that the company's current fundamentals are far from supporting its high valuation. Brokerage reports suggest that with advances in embodied intelligence driving technological and commercial breakthroughs, demand for humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026. Policy support, faster technological iteration, and multi-scenario deployment are shifting the industry from concept to mass production realization. TrendForce also noted in a previous report that 2026 will be a critical year for the global commercialization of humanoid robots, with annual shipments projected to exceed 50,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 700%.
In the Hong Kong market, capital's preference based on the actual performance of robotics concept stocks is already reflected in share prices. For example, the first humanoid robot stock listed in Hong Kong saw its price adjust after failing to meet mass production order expectations in 2023 and 2024. While that company achieved revenue of RMB 2.001 billion in 2025, a 53.3% increase year-on-year—clearly an order of magnitude higher than YUNJI commercially—its current price-to-sales (PS) ratio is only 24.79x, significantly lower than YUNJI's 67.81x.
Considering the above, if the push for Stock Connect inclusion was the main driver behind the concentrated capital rally in YUNJI during the first half of the year, does the stock's current proximity to inclusion now signal an impending "countdown to correction"?
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