Drivers should stay alert as the latest round of domestic refined oil price adjustment is set to take effect at midnight on September 24. Market analysts widely expect this cycle to result in a price increase for retail fuel.
According to JLC Network Technologies, the upward adjustment is largely locked in due to gains in crude prices during the early part of the current pricing period. However, consecutive declines in international crude prices in recent days have narrowed the expected increase compared to earlier projections. As of the ninth working day on September 23, the average reference crude price stood at $102.20 per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 8.62%. This translates to a proposed increase of 490 yuan per tonne for domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. The adjustment window opens at midnight on September 24, with the retail price hike now anticipated to shrink from 0.8 yuan per liter to 0.6 yuan per liter.
Looking back at 2026, domestic oil prices have undergone eighteen rounds of adjustments so far, following a pattern of twelve increases, five decreases, and one instance of no change. To mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the state has introduced three separate regulatory measures on refined oil prices this year. If the current nineteenth round proceeds as expected with an increase, the 2026 adjustment landscape would shift to thirteen hikes, five cuts, and one hold.
Based on the ten-working-day principle, the next retail price adjustment window is scheduled to open at midnight on October 15. Analysts note that the recent slide in international crude prices stems from a combination of geopolitical risk premium unwinding and growing expectations of supply recovery. On the one hand, easing tensions in the Middle East have led to a rapid retreat in the geopolitical premium that had been built on supply disruption fears. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's crude export recovery has outpaced market expectations, and shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have improved, significantly relieving supply-side pressures. On the other hand, expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike have pushed the dollar index higher, while demand-side support remains weak amid global economic growth concerns, further amplifying the downward move in oil prices.
Looking ahead, Middle East geopolitics and strait conditions remain the core factors influencing the oil market. Given that fundamental disagreements between the U.S. and Iran are unlikely to be resolved quickly, coupled with ongoing stalemate and low transit levels through the Strait of Hormuz, crude markets are expected to maintain a high-level yet volatile trajectory from September through October. The mainstream trading range for oil prices is likely to oscillate between $80 and $110 per barrel.
Commodity futures research reports note that despite notable production increases from Gulf nations, actual short-term transit volumes through the strait remain subdued, leaving near-term crude spot supply relatively tight. However, strong expectations of a global supply surplus in the longer term will significantly cap upside potential, pointing to a market likely to remain in a range-bound but increasingly volatile state.
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