The 5th Enterprise Innovation and Development Conference was held from February 1st to 3rd in Dongguan, Guangdong. Economist Ma Guangyuan attended and delivered a speech.
Ma Guangyuan believes that the most critical issue currently is that people still do not pay enough attention to the major cycle of the Chinese economy. He pointed out that China's most pivotal and transitional cycle is the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, during which many of China's industries have reached significant turning points.
"Therefore, whether you are in industry or investment, the most important thing is the trend," Ma Guangyuan said, noting that the prosperous cycle of an industry typically lasts about nine years. The cycle we are in now is called a super-cycle. "I have never seen such a cycle, nor have I seen one so turbulent."
He believes that three major events will dominate the future cycle amidst changes in the global landscape: first, the tariffs from the Trump administration; second, artificial intelligence; and third, the accelerated reshaping of supply chains.
He mentioned that the biggest highlight of China's exports in 2025 will be the move upmarket of its export structure. This includes the upscaling of both the product mix and the proportion of high-end components. The status of Chinese manufacturing and China's supply chain within the global industrial chain is actually strengthening.
"In fact, we see this advantage existing in almost all fields in China, including some very low-end sectors. So, it's not that many people are focusing on high-end industries; actually, many sectors in China, including some very low-end ones, are revitalizing and gaining new competitiveness through supply chain restructuring," Ma Guangyuan said.
He emphasized the necessity of recognizing the importance of the manufacturing sector for China and its economy. Chinese manufacturing and supply chains should be more confident and adapt to the trend of global industrial chain relocation. Industries need to expand overseas; firstly, to alleviate international pressure, and secondly, because it is an inevitable trend.
"We have found that for Chinese companies going global, there was a situation last year where overseas profits were significantly better than domestic ones; they made much more money overseas. This is a gradual manifestation of the benefits, and we believe this shift is correct," Ma Guangyuan suggested that China's industrial chains should proactively reshape themselves, actively go global, and proactively disperse the many risks associated with deglobalization.
Ma Guangyuan stated that in the coming decade, as China's economy changes, the global environment shifts, and AI rises, entirely new economic policies and economic thinking are required to manage the growth of the Chinese economy in the next cycle.
He pointed out that within this cycle, one must run swiftly to reach the next, better cycle. Short-term conditions are not important; what matters is seeing the trend over the next ten years. Understanding what that trend will be is what we need to focus on.
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