Copper stocks experienced a collective surge before the noon session. As of the time of writing, China Nonferrous Mining Industry Co., Ltd. (01258) rose 12.02% to HK$16.68; MMG Limited (01208) increased by 11.02% to HK$5.05; China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. (02099) climbed 7.25% to HK$233.6; Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (02899) advanced 5.05% to HK$42.46; and Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358) gained 4.07% to HK$47.06. On the news front, Zhengxin Futures noted that while macroeconomic expectations have cooled somewhat, geopolitical concerns persist. Despite continued pressure from the U.S. government on the Federal Reserve, market pricing for interest rate cuts remains conservative. Concurrently, inflation data has not exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate has declined, indicating the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy. From an industry perspective, although long-term supply and demand expectations are difficult to disprove for now, the recent trend of weak fundamentals continues, with global inventories rising further to 1 million tonnes. After adjusting at the 100,000 yuan mark, copper prices have rebounded again, primarily driven by geopolitical factors and gold price movements, with prices mainly fluctuating at high levels. Guangzhou Futures believes that the immediate drivers for the copper price increase have loosened. However, the fragile copper ore supply, coupled with rigid demand from emerging sectors and the increasingly prominent strategic resource attribute of copper, means the price floor remains solid. The room for downward adjustment is relatively limited, and prices are expected to continue their upward trend after a period of consolidation and accumulation of momentum.
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