Bitcoin dropped below the $80,000 mark on Monday, touching a low of around $79,330 within the past 24 hours, approaching its lowest level since mid-September. As of publication, Bitcoin had recovered above the $80,000 threshold to trade at $80,320. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision and earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all landing in the same week, crypto analysts are clearly divided on where Bitcoin heads next.
$80,000 Support Breaks, Year-to-Date Performance Nearly Matches Gold
After losing the $80,000 level, Bitcoin briefly traded near $79,930, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours and more than 3% over the past week, with a total market capitalization of approximately $1.61 trillion. What is truly intriguing is its year-to-date performance: according to data from MN Fund founder Michael Van de Poppe, Bitcoin has declined 7.3% in 2026, while gold has fallen 7.5%. The "digital gold" that has long been compared to gold has seen its year-to-date decline nearly match gold's — which has become both the bulls' reason to call a bottom and the bears' basis for questioning its safe-haven properties.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin briefly approached $85,000 last Wednesday before pulling back, and dropped to around $79,100 over the weekend; multiple attempts to break through $83,000 failed. The price levels the market is currently watching are quite concentrated: support sits near $79,000 on the downside, short-term momentum improvement requires reclaiming $82,000, and $83,000 is regarded as both a technical and psychological threshold. Additionally, according to Coinglass and multiple platform data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, most recently at -0.15%, indicating persistently weak buying interest from the U.S. market.
Two Key Macro Variables This Week
The first is the Federal Reserve. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, with the decision to be announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time. According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing a 91% probability of holding rates at 3.75%-4.00%, and a 9% probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4.00%-4.25%. It is worth noting that the market is pricing in a small probability of a "rate hike," not a rate cut — investors will also look to the statement and press conference for signals on whether the Fed will continue hiking in December, with market expectations for a December hike surging to nearly 80%.
The second is big tech earnings. Microsoft and Google are set to report on Wednesday, with Amazon on Thursday. Meta has already raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $135-145 billion. The key point is that massive AI spending has a two-way impact on Bitcoin, and both directions are bearish: on one hand, if heavy investment gives investors a glimpse of growth opportunities, capital could flow out of Bitcoin into tech stocks; on the other hand, if concerns about AI returns trigger broader selling and investors enter de-risking mode, Bitcoin would also fall. Only in a scenario where tech stocks rally and risk appetite recovers would Bitcoin benefit.
BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei's assessment is that all eyes are on this week's Fed meeting, and Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is itself a sign that investors are already reducing risk; the Fed will likely hold steady this week, and what truly matters is how strongly the Chair signals a December hike. He also flagged risks: against a backdrop of record-high oil prices, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, and inflation, the Fed could very well adopt a hawkish tone, which would mean higher rates and less liquidity — bad news for both crypto and equities.
Fund Flows
Ahead of this decline, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw combined outflows of $773 million last week — the total across two trading days, October 22 (net outflow of $635.6 million) and October 23 (net outflow of $137.9 million). On a full-week basis, these funds recorded over $1 billion in net inflows from Monday through Wednesday but still ended the week with approximately $301 million in net inflows, ending two consecutive weeks of net outflows. However, for the full month of October, net outflows still totaled approximately $314 million. In terms of details, the single-day outflow of $635.6 million on October 22 was the largest single-day redemption since June; BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC together accounted for $471.6 million of that day's outflows, nearly three-quarters of the total. As of recently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated approximately $57.6 billion in net inflows, with total net asset value of about $100.2 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $221 million for the week, and roughly -$1.18 billion month-to-date in October. In other words, fund flows have indeed weakened, but not as badly as the "$773 million net outflow" headline suggests.
Leverage: Longs Were the Ones Liquidated
Another source of downward pressure came from derivatives. CoinGlass data shows that within a 24-hour statistical period, total contract liquidations across all exchanges reached $154.23 million, involving over 62,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $117.99 million in liquidations versus only $36.23 million for shorts — those betting on price increases bore the vast majority of losses; Ethereum topped the list at $43.17 million, followed by Bitcoin at $32.94 million. Earlier, after Bitcoin was rejected near $85,000 on October 22, Material Indicators recorded an order book bull trap that liquidated over $500 million in long positions. Bitfinex analysts warned as early as October 19 that futures exposure was increasing even as prices fell, potentially brewing a new wave of liquidations. This backdrop aligns with what bear Ted Pillows has said — he believes any rebound is "only due to short covering, not spot demand."
"Capitulation" or "Buying the Dip"?
The core argument from bulls like Van de Poppe centers on long-term returns: Bitcoin has delivered annualized returns of 120% since 2011, while gold has returned only 6%. Therefore, he argues that when Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold, investors should "bet heavily," and after "one to two years, once gold completes its correction," rotate back into gold. He also posted on October 25 that "Bitcoin's correction will end very soon." Earlier, on October 22-23, he outlined two long scenarios: either price sweeps into the demand zone of $78,400-$79,700, or it breaks above $82,900 to invalidate the bearish structure and target new year-to-date highs.
On the bearish side, Ted Pillows said on X that Bitcoin "looks like it still wants to go lower," and warned that if the weekly chart loses the $80,000 region, "we may soon see capitulation-style selling." On-chain analysts James Check and Michael Sullivan raised the question in a Checkonchain newsletter: is Bitcoin currently in a "legendary rally amid disbelief," or yet "another bear market bounce"?
Institutional voices are equally split. Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron believes Bitcoin is still showing resilience relative to AI debt concerns that are weighing on all risk assets. Apollo Crypto portfolio manager Pratik Kala noted that for many systematic funds and algorithmic traders, Bitcoin falls into the risk-avoidance asset category and is therefore vulnerable to sentiment deterioration; he added that advances in AI also exacerbate potential security risks facing crypto assets, making some investors more cautious.
Gold bull Peter Schiff has set his target at $75,000. The technical framework provides a falsifiable yardstick: analyst Benjamin Cowen's nine-step bearish roadmap has completed its first two steps (a weekly close below $83,000 and the October 25 upside fakeout), and if Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $83,000, that scenario would be invalidated — making $83,000 a dual technical and psychological threshold. Sentiment on prediction market Myriad has clearly turned bearish: traders assign a 43% probability to "dropping to $75,000 before month-end," up from just 32% the day before.
This Week Sets the Tone for What Comes Next
The divergence between bulls and bears is not really about "whether there will be volatility," but about "whether this is a shakeout or a turn to bear market." The answer will likely be determined by this week's densely packed events: the Fed decision (Wednesday U.S. time), Microsoft and Google earnings (Wednesday), September PCE inflation data (October 29), Amazon earnings (Thursday), and approximately $11 billion in notional Bitcoin options expiring on October 30. Further out, there is also the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
$80,000 is the psychological threshold, $83,000 is the technical barrier. Between the two, Bitcoin is being pulled by two forces simultaneously: on one side, credit concerns over the AI trade and sticky inflation driven by high oil prices; on the other, a valuation that has been compressed to historic lows relative to gold. Van de Poppe's choice is to "bet heavily" now, while Ted Pillows' choice is to wait for "capitulation" — and the Fed Chair's wording at Wednesday's press conference will determine which way the market's scales tip.
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