Hong Kong stocks experienced a strong rally in the second trading day of the Lunar Year of the Horse. On February 23, both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index recorded significant gains, reflecting a notable improvement in market sentiment. Sector performance showed clear divergence: technology and internet stocks, along with semiconductor concepts, generally advanced, while the commodity sector stood out with particular strength. Gold and oil stocks led the market higher with collective gains. In contrast, previously popular AI and robotics sectors saw a pullback.
Industry analysts believe the surge in Hong Kong's commodity sector is not an isolated event. It is supported by sustained strength in international gold and oil prices, as well as heightened safe-haven demand triggered by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions during the Lunar New Year holiday.
On February 23, Hong Kong markets delivered robust performance, marking a strong start to the Year of the Horse. By the close, the Hang Seng Index had risen 2.53%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 3.34%, indicating a clear rebound in investor confidence.
Sector performances varied noticeably. Technology and internet stocks generally advanced, with Meituan-W, Alibaba, and Tencent posting gains of 5.26%, 3.47%, and 3.07%, respectively. Semiconductor concept stocks also strengthened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising 4.51%. The commodity sector performed especially well. Wind data showed the gold segment leading the gains, with stocks such as潼关黄金,赤峰黄金, and大唐黄金 all climbing more than 6%. The oil sector also advanced, with shares like PetroChina,中海油田服务, and CNOOC registering increases. Meanwhile, previously favored AI and robotics stocks retreated, with智谱 falling over 22% and MiniMax dropping over 13%.
Over a longer timeframe, Hong Kong's commodity-related sectors have shown sustained strength for several consecutive days. Wind data indicated that on February 16 and 20, the commodity sector broadly strengthened, with multiple gold and oil stocks reversing their weak performance from the first half of February and posting consecutive gains. For instance, CNOOC rose for multiple sessions from February 16 to 23, recovering its losses for the month.
This sustained strength in Hong Kong commodity stocks is underpinned by solid support from international commodity prices. Wind data showed that from February 16 to 20, Comex gold futures accumulated a 1.66% gain. After breaking through $5,000 per ounce on the 19th, prices consolidated above $5,100 on the 20th and briefly touched $5,198 during trading on the 23rd. Comex silver futures rose 8.47% from February 16 to 20, surpassing $85 per ounce yesterday. ICE Brent crude futures advanced 5.62% over the same period.
Analysts suggest that the sharp fluctuations in commodity-related assets during the holiday may be closely linked to recent international geopolitical developments.
During the holiday, U.S.-Iran relations exhibited a pattern of "simultaneous negotiation progress and military pressure." On February 19, U.S. President Trump publicly signaled a "10–15 day" deadline, hinting at military options if meaningful agreements were not reached. Iran announced live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily closed parts of the waterway.
Commenting on the situation, Zhang Bo, an analyst at Industrial Securities, noted that historically, oil prices tend to perform well during periods of Iran-related tensions. However, he also pointed out that such effects are usually short-lived. Past experience indicates that conflicts involving Iran tend to benefit gold, crude oil, and natural gas, with limited impact on equity assets. Among these, gold and oil often perform better before and on the day of conflict outbreak, after which their upward momentum and average returns tend to diminish.
Against the backdrop of Hong Kong's strong performance, the market is paying closer attention to what this trend may signify for the impending reopening of A-shares. Analysts believe that given the close linkages between Hong Kong and A-shares in terms of capital flows, overlapping listed companies, and sentiment transmission, the standout performance of Hong Kong's technology and commodity sectors may serve as a bellwether for post-holiday A-share trends. Safe-haven sentiment driven by geopolitical factors, combined with the earnings delivery capability of high-growth sectors, could jointly propel leading stocks higher.
Historical data show that A-shares exhibit a notable "Spring Festival effect." Wind data indicate that over the 20-year period from 2006 to 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded pre-holiday (five trading days) and post-holiday (five trading days) gains with probabilities of 80% and 75%, respectively.
From a liquidity perspective, the market also appears well-supported. Wu Kaida, a strategist at Tianfeng Securities, noted that although trading volumes cooled and new equity fund issuance declined before the holiday, net inflows into existing stock ETFs resumed. Mainstream funds may have halted reductions, while margin trading funds saw net outflows, suggesting a wait for renewed trading momentum. The current rally is expected to continue.
Chen Gang, an analyst at Soochow Securities, added that the market environment around the Spring Festival typically favors bulls, with A-shares presenting more opportunities than risks. He expressed optimism about post-holiday tech stock performance. Macro-level positive changes include external catalysts from a weaker U.S. dollar and domestic front-loaded policy support. At the micro level, liquidity conditions may also improve, with a rebound in the renminbi exchange rate and Hong Kong's strong rally likely to boost sentiment. Institutions such as insurers and mutual funds are also expected to adjust their asset allocations at the start of the new year.
It is worth noting that in the month before the holiday, market style had already shown signs of tilting toward value. Whether the post-holiday trend will continue to revolve around technology remains a key topic of discussion.
In a recent report, Industrial Securities Strategy pointed out that, based on historical outperformance probabilities, technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure-related sectors tend to lead after the Spring Festival. The logic behind this is twofold: first, improved risk appetite after the holiday often benefits growth sectors like TMT and advanced manufacturing; second, as spring construction peaks in March and policies are implemented following the "Two Sessions," pricing catalysts are expected to multiply, providing a boost to resource and infrastructure segments. In technology manufacturing, focus remains on "broad AI assets," with布局 around computing infrastructure and commercial applications.
The Tianfeng Securities team, however, believes that while small-cap growth styles have historically outperformed after the holiday, the strength of this pattern may be moderated by two factors this year: first, large-cap growth may also strengthen given confirmed industry momentum; second, the allocation logic for high-dividend assets as long-term holdings remains solid. Post-holiday style could thus feature "growth and dividends dancing together," rather than a simple full switch.
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