The next adjustment window for domestic refined oil product retail price limits is scheduled to open at 24:00 on May 21, with multiple industry institutions forecasting a slight upward revision. According to the current refined oil pricing mechanism, the primary basis for domestic price adjustments is the rate of change calculated by comparing the weighted average international crude oil price over the most recent 10 working days with that of the previous cycle. If the corresponding price adjustment amount per ton is less than 50 yuan based on this rate, the prices of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted; the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next adjustment cycle for accumulation or offset.
During the current pricing cycle, renewed instability in U.S.-Iran relations has led to a significant rise in oil prices driven by market concerns. Overall, the average crude oil price for this period has increased compared to the previous cycle. Consequently, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive, indicating an expectation for a minor increase in refined oil retail price limits.
According to calculations by Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close on May 19, the ninth working day of the cycle, the reference crude oil change rate was 2.01%. This translates to an expected increase of 90 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for 24:00 on May 21.
With only one working day remaining until the adjustment window opens, an upward revision in the refined oil retail price limit is highly probable, with the final increase potentially exceeding 100 yuan per ton. Based on this estimate, the price per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0-diesel is expected to rise by approximately 0.09 yuan. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline would cost about 4.5 yuan more.
Similarly, Longzhong Information's refined oil analyst forecasts that the domestic retail price limit adjustment window opening at 24:00 on May 21 will likely result in an increase of around 90 yuan per ton. For a private vehicle with a 70-liter fuel tank, this would mean an additional cost of roughly 5 yuan to fill up.
So far this year, domestic fuel prices have undergone nine adjustments, resulting in a pattern of "seven increases, one decrease, and one hold." Compared to the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 2,505 yuan and 2,415 yuan per ton, respectively. According to Longzhong Information's calculations, following this upcoming adjustment, the pattern for 2024 will shift to "eight increases, one decrease, and one hold."
It is important to note that while industry consensus points towards an upward revision of refined oil retail price limits, the final adjustment result will be subject to the official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.
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