Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the Financial Budget aligns with the firm's expectations. The Hong Kong government did not announce any major stimulus measures targeting the residential property market, which has already bottomed out since mid-2025. However, the overall tone is more positive, driven by active capital market activities and economic recovery. Stamp duty and corporate tax revenues were higher than anticipated, coupled with continued control over fiscal expenditures, leading to a revised fiscal surplus of HKD 2.9 billion for the 2025/26 fiscal year. For the 2026/27 fiscal year, the government expects further improvement in fiscal conditions, forecasting an 11% year-on-year revenue growth, outpacing the 7% increase in expenditures, resulting in a larger surplus of HKD 22 billion, equivalent to 0.7% of GDP. Notably, the budget assumes relatively stable land premium income of HKD 18 billion, although the government intends to continue quarterly land sales to ensure a stable supply in the coming years. Depending on developers' financial capacity and bidding appetite, Goldman Sachs does not anticipate a sharp rise in land premiums. The firm believes that new property development projects and investments are more economically viable and attractive for developers. The government expressed plans to collaborate with the mainland to accelerate the inclusion of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the Stock Connect scheme; this may indicate authorities are working to expedite integrating REITs into the interconnected market. In summary, while no major stimulus was announced for the residential market, the firm believes that a better economic outlook, supportive talent visa/entry policies, and the resumption of land sales at relatively lower prices should benefit future market sentiment and the recovery of developers' profitability. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the Hong Kong residential market and highlights its recommendations. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on SHK PPT (00016), HENDERSON LAND (00012), and SINO LAND (00083).
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