Gold prices opened the week on Monday, August 3, with international spot gold starting at $4,080.39 per ounce before declining. The move was triggered by President Trump calling off a new strike on Iran, stating a deal was "imminent," which caused U.S. oil to plunge over 8% at the open. However, as these were merely statements without a concrete agreement, and Iran's Foreign Ministry noted the Strait of Hormuz would not return to a pre-war state, gold prices fell back. Short-term trends are expected to remain range-bound.
Last week, gold prices opened higher but closed flat compared to the prior week's settlement, maintaining the consolidation pattern of recent weeks. The market faced resistance at the top and support at the bottom, and until this pattern breaks, prices will be treated as fluctuating within a range. The week began with a gap higher due to a pause in mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran, but weak sentiment and resistance capped gains. Ongoing risks of conflict escalation, including Iran's surprise attack on a U.S. military base and the Houthis claiming to have struck a Saudi-flagged oil tanker, increased risk appetite, driving prices lower. Supportive buying and expectations that the Federal Reserve's decision and comments from Governor Waller would reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, along with joint U.S.-Japan intervention to curb yen depreciation, pushed the dollar index sharply lower, lifting gold prices to weekly highs. However, bearish U.S. data on Friday halted the rally.
In terms of specific movements, gold opened the week at $4,088.60, fell back, filled the gap on Tuesday, and hit a weekly low of $3,995.62 on Wednesday. It then rebounded to near the opening high of $4,116, reached a weekly high of $4,120.33 on Thursday, but retreated on Friday to close at $4,051.23. The weekly range was $124.71, with a loss of $3.99, or 0.098%, compared to the prior week's close of $4,055.22.
The market is now eyeing data this week, including the U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and construction spending. Based on last week's data and expectations, these figures are likely to be bearish or mixed. However, with the market awaiting the key ADP and non-farm payrolls data this week, any data before then will have a limited impact. The ADP employment change, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls for July are expected to be favorable for gold prices, so the weekly trend is still likely to be dominated by consolidation, with a short-term upward bias.
On the fundamentals front, gold faces a mix of intertwined variables. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran situation is far from resolved. The near-term outlook is for a tug-of-war of easing and escalation, keeping precious metals in a bottoming consolidation. Economic data showed a slight decline in the PCE inflation index, and expectations for a rate hike have diminished following Waller's comments, supporting gold's bottoming adjustment. Short-term, resistance is above and support is below. However, the structural support for gold remains in the long term. Central banks globally continue to buy gold, with the People's Bank of China adding to its reserves for the 20th consecutive month. In the first quarter of 2026, central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold, the strongest quarterly performance in over a year. Geopolitical uncertainty and global debt pressures also enhance gold's strategic value. For long-term allocation, considering the three major bear markets since 1970, gold has at least retraced 50% of its prior gains. Therefore, if gold prices fall further, a test of the $3,600 or $3,300 levels could form a more solid bottom before a renewed bull market begins. So, both the current level and any further decline present good buying opportunities.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold formed a shooting star in July without retesting a new low, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. However, it remains below the 5- and 10-month moving averages, and the indicators continue to show bearish signals, implying a potential decline to the $3,900 or $3,600 area before transitioning to a sideways consolidation for several months and then a rally. Conversely, a close above the 5- and 10-month moving averages would suggest a potential test of the all-time high.
On the weekly chart, gold's doji closing last week maintains the consolidation range of recent weeks. While there is a tendency toward bottoming and rebounding, the 60-week moving average remains a resistance, and the Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, keeping the pressure on. A breakdown to test the 100-week moving average near $3,700 is not ruled out, which would be a good entry point for a bullish position. Conversely, a close above the 60-week moving average would signal a strong bullish trend. Until then, maintain a range-trading approach.
On the daily chart, gold is consolidating above the uptrend line, showing a tendency to strengthen. However, the 100-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 200-day moving average, suggesting the rebound is still a phase. If gold cannot break above the $4,500 level sustainably, it risks a new decline toward $3,700. For intraday operations, initial support is at $4,050 and $4,030, while resistance is at $4,100 and $4,135. For silver, support is at $57.80 and $57.10, with resistance at $59.40 and $60.00.
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