The book "China's Economy 2026: Economic Resilience and National Prosperity" by Wang Depei has now been published for over a decade. Released by Shanghai Far East Publishers, the work by author Wang Depei, who has long been engaged in macroeconomic and trend research, adopts a specific theme each year. For instance, the 2016 edition focused on the transition from reform dividends to innovation dividends, the 2017 edition on seeking a new economic "continent," and the 2025 edition on structural consolidation and turning crises into opportunities. The 2026 edition logically continues from the themes of 2025, arguing that despite uncertainties in the global economy, China is continuously strengthening its capabilities through institutional and systemic reforms. The book's analytical perspective is not limited to domestic economic development but also incorporates a global outlook.
The author analyzes the underlying causes of international trade frictions, noting that major economies like those in Europe and America are entering cycles of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, leading to rising debt levels, accumulating asset bubbles, and heightened recession risks. On the other hand, the world is undergoing a significant transformation in production methods, with the widespread application of new technologies such as AI. China possesses distinct advantages in navigating these global uncertainties. Specifically, the Chinese economy holds several key strengths.
The first is the resilience of the Chinese economy. This resilience stems from China's ultra-large-scale market, resource endowments, and strategic depth, which together form inherent advantages for resisting external risks. The second strength is the mutually reinforcing dual circulation of domestic and international markets. The vast and diverse domestic market provides rich application scenarios for industries. Internationally, China is steadily enhancing its influence in global supply chains and finance through exports and the internationalization of the Renminbi. The third strength is the industrial space for overcoming the middle-income trap, benefiting from China's complete industrial chain and its "engineer dividend," enabling a leap from manufacturing to high-value-added industries. Concurrently, the optimization of multi-tiered industrial layouts and the promotion of coordinated development between eastern and western regions provide China with an advantage in transcending the middle-income trap.
The author contends that China's economic resilience is not simply reflected in growth rates but primarily in its capacity to respond—its ability to withstand shocks, adjust structures, and maintain long-term development potential. As global uncertainties increase, including the restructuring of global supply chains, recurring geopolitical conflicts, and associated fluctuations in international demand, the Chinese economy benefits from its resilience. Key factors include its massive domestic market, multi-level industrial system, potent policy adjustment capabilities, and the ability to maintain strategic focus while continuously advancing high-quality economic development.
The book provides a framework for understanding China's economy, suggesting that one should not dwell on short-term economic fluctuations but rather focus on long-term trends and structural changes. Looking ahead, China holds advantages in industrial upgrading, technological innovation, urbanization, and regional development strategies, possessing systemic capabilities such as a complete industrial chain, a diverse set of policy tools, and a huge domestic market. These elements collectively form the foundation of China's economic resilience. The author believes the Chinese economy will transition from scale expansion to quality improvement and from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth. The book also emphasizes the importance of the digital economy, green transformation, and high-end manufacturing. Its analyses of industrial upgrading, regional development, and related policies offer valuable insights.
Furthermore, the author argues that for Chinese companies expanding overseas, the domestic model's "efficiency-first" approach must resonate with the "demand gaps" in foreign markets for companies to successfully transition from merely going global to establishing deep roots. This requires flexible integration of domestic and international models, with adjustments and adaptable production combinations based on international market demand. The book attempts to demonstrate a balanced perspective—neither blindly confident nor excessively pessimistic—but rather focused on identifying certainties within a complex environment. Aimed at a general readership, some analyses lean towards macro-level narrative. The author primarily analyzes positive factors, with relatively limited discussion on the necessity of guarding against related risks.
Nevertheless, the book explains various aspects of China's economy in accessible language, clearly illustrating why it can maintain resilience amidst multiple shocks and continue to develop and advance amid global economic changes. Compared to specialized economic texts, the book extensively uses case studies and analogies to express abstract concepts through simple, concrete scenarios. Overall, using China's economic resilience as its central theme, the book constructs a clear framework for understanding the Chinese economy. In the current climate of global economic uncertainty, its value lies in seeking certainty within uncertainty, identifying trends amidst change, and recognizing the long-term logic behind China's economic advantages in contemporary development. As a book that enables readers to quickly grasp a cognitive map of the global economy and the logic of China's economic strengths, it is a worthwhile read.
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