Negotiations originally scheduled to begin on June 19th in Switzerland between the US and Iran have been postponed. The Iranian delegation had already prepared their luggage for departure, but ongoing Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon led Iran to directly delay the trip, stalling the talks.
The first clause of the recently signed US-Iran memorandum is explicitly clear: a permanent ceasefire must be established on all fronts, including Lebanon, ensuring Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear he will not comply, publicly stating that Israeli forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon and will maintain a long-term presence in a security zone. Recent drone strikes have also caused civilian casualties. Iran views Israel's actions as a violation of the ceasefire agreement, with the Lebanon issue being a core red line in the negotiations. Iran believes that if the US cannot control Israel, it cannot sit down to negotiate with peace of mind.
There are significant internal divisions within Iran. The Supreme Leader, Mujtaba, has frankly stated that, in his heart, he does not endorse this memorandum with the US. He only gave his reluctant approval after the presidential team assured him that the negotiations would not harm Iran's interests and that they would immediately halt talks if the US made excessive demands. He specifically drew a clear bottom line: being willing to sit down for face-to-face communication with the US does not mean Iran will compromise according to US demands; Iran will maintain full control of the initiative throughout the process.
In short, while the paper ceasefire agreement appears favorable, real-world conflict has not stopped at all. Israel's continued disruption is planting landmines for the negotiations. Hardliners within Iran were already skeptical of reconciliation. If the US fails to fulfill its commitments and Israel does not cease fire, the subsequent 60-day negotiations could be interrupted at any time, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East, which would ripple through oil, gold, and silver prices.
On another front, the US and Israel have now openly clashed. US Vice President Vance directly and publicly confronted senior Israeli officials, resulting in a heated exchange.
All levels of the Israeli government are dissatisfied with the recently signed US-Iran ceasefire memorandum, criticizing it for failing to address Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threats and for tying Israel's hands, preventing them from striking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Far-right officials have even publicly criticized former President Trump.
Vance delivered a stern message at a press conference: the US provides Israel with $4 billion in annual military aid, and most of Israel's weapons are funded by the US. The Trump administration is currently Israel's only reliable major-power ally and should not, in turn, vigorously criticize or even smear Trump. He specifically named and criticized two hardline Israeli ministers, bluntly stating that with a population under 10 million, Israel cannot solve all its security challenges through warfare alone and should not hold extreme opposition to US peace proposals.
The named Israeli officials did not back down, firing back on social media by comparing Iran to neo-Nazis and claiming their fight against Iran is analogous to the US fighting the Nazis, showing no sign of softening. Netanyahu maintains a facade of friendship with the US, but his actions are completely contradictory. Not only has he delineated an expanded control zone in southern Lebanon, but he has also stated there will be no troop withdrawal and that airstrikes could be launched outside the buffer zone at any time, directly violating the memorandum's requirement for a full ceasefire.
As the dispute intensifies, Trump has stepped in to mediate, urging all parties to abide by the agreement, implement a comprehensive ceasefire, and ease tensions.
Setting aside the US-Israel quarrel, Vance also announced practical progress on the agreement's implementation: the US has lifted its maritime blockade on Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened for navigation, with over 10 million barrels of crude oil successfully shipped out in the past day. This agreement follows a mutual compliance model: if Iran cooperates well, sanctions will be gradually relaxed; if Iran violates the terms, the US can immediately revoke all concessions. The next 60 days of negotiations will be led by Vance, but all final terms require Trump's approval. Trump's stance has been inconsistent, previously insisting on dismantling Iran's missile program but now stating that Iran can retain a certain scale of missiles.
However, this agreement is also quite controversial within the US. Republican hawkish leaders have questioned whether too many concessions were made. Vance could only reassure them that even if the talks collapse, the US still holds all its cards, including sanctions and military options, and there's no need for excessive worry.
Overall, the cracks in the US-Israel alliance are now public. A paper peace is difficult to quell frontline conflict, and the persistent risk of geopolitical volatility continues to weigh on market prices.
Gold Market Analysis
Regarding gold, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday evening. With current US inflation data remaining stubbornly high, the Fed chose to keep interest rates unchanged while significantly tempering expectations for rate cuts within the year, clearly stating that a sustained decline in inflation is necessary before a rate-cutting cycle can begin. Impacted by this hawkish outlook, gold came under significant downward pressure, with prices probing a low of $4,218.
Overnight and into yesterday's early session, gold prices staged a notable rebound, rallying to a high near $4,330. However, there was never a fundamental basis for a sustained bullish reversal. Yesterday, we explicitly advised using this rebound to establish short positions, firmly anticipating a subsequent decline. The European session unfolded as expected with a downward move. A key signal was that, in normal market conditions, prices quickly rebound after touching support. The prolonged inability to rebound from the lows this time was actually a signal of persistent downward pressure being digested. After extended weak consolidation and accumulation of momentum during the European session, the US session saw selling resume, with the decline continuing overnight and extending further in this morning's session, forming a coherent and persistent downtrend.
A trending move that exhibits both significant price movement and continuity is sufficient to confirm that the bearish trend is not yet complete. Today, the overall view remains to follow the trend lower. Based on recent market patterns, after the morning decline, a technical corrective rebound often occurs during the midday period, which also presents our primary window for entering short positions today.
Focus on two key resistance zones above: the primary area for selling on a rebound is $4,195 - $4,200. The intraday core pivot separating bullish and bearish territory is locked at last night's high of $4,232. In a weak downtrend, the price must not effectively break above $4,232. A sustained move above this level would disrupt the current downward structure. As long as rebounds are capped below $4,232, all rebound attempts present opportunities to sell into strength.
Summarizing the full day's market rhythm, the bearish trend is clear. The trading strategy remains to sell on rallies. The downtrend is not over yet; follow the trend. Of course, if the midday rebound is weak and fails to reach the expected resistance levels, then more aggressive short entries could be considered at that time.
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