After a recent sharp surge, the spot price of silver has risen to $79.19 per ounce; meanwhile, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures price settled at $56.74 per barrel.
This means the price of one ounce of silver has exceeded that of one barrel of U.S. crude oil—the last time this situation occurred was in April 2020, when the COVID-19 outbreak severely impacted energy prices, although oil prices quickly recovered their losses afterward; the earlier record dates back to 1980. Some analysts believe that current demand for silver from investors and industries is almost insatiable. On the investment front, this precious metal is being heavily hoarded in both physical and financial asset forms to store wealth and hedge against risks facing the U.S. dollar and other currencies.
Citigroup analysts estimate that the solar energy industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver supply from mining and recycling.
John Ciampaglia, CEO of asset management firm Sprott Asset Management, stated, "Even as the U.S. scales back support for solar energy, other countries have not slowed their pace of solar installations, which is significantly consuming silver demand." The company's funds hold physical silver.
On the supply side, there is little prospect of a substantial influx of new production. Global "pure silver" deposits are largely depleted, and silver now more commonly appears as a by-product of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc.
Ciampaglia pointed out that this means changes in silver supply are often driven by demand for other metals, rather than by silver itself.
However, some warn that precious metal prices are on the edge of a cliff, with the risk of a correction accumulating.
Analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a report, "Precious metal prices have risen to levels we find difficult to justify with fundamentals." They forecast that as the frenzy for gold subsides, the silver price could fall back to around $42 by the end of next year.
It is worth noting that Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk expressed concern about the rise in silver prices. He posted on a social media platform, "This is not good. Silver is essential for many industrial processes." His remarks were in response to a post describing silver prices surging due to a "severe global supply shortage." Recently, silver prices have risen sharply, soaring over 17% in the past week.
Data from the World Silver Institute shows the market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with a cumulative deficit of approximately 25,500 tonnes from 2021 to 2025. This dual logic of "short-term liquidity push + long-term structural shortage," combined with persistently rising gold prices, has led to a frenzy in silver driven by a comparison effect.
Nevertheless, although silver has long-term support from factors like green energy demand, its price is already at historically high levels. The疯狂上涨 could also dampen demand. In the short term, silver prices may have already priced in substantial optimistic expectations, and the risk of a correction is gradually accumulating. Investors must be fully aware of its highly speculative nature when participating in such products and avoid blindly chasing the rally.
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