Gold Market Trend Analysis: As of April 29, spot gold was trading near $4,589 per ounce during early Asian trading hours. The price fell nearly 2% on Tuesday, hitting a four-week low of $4,554.91 per ounce, and may test the $4,500 support level. The decline was driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions and persistent inflation concerns. Market focus remains on the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Investors are also closely monitoring remarks from Chair Jerome Powell.
From a technical perspective, gold's rebound remains weak due to both technical pressure and a lack of positive catalysts. Although the price stabilized briefly after a sharp decline, it has not formed a clear reversal pattern. Instead, it remains in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. On the daily chart, moving averages are aligned in a bearish formation, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day averages acting as resistance. The MACD indicator shows a narrowing negative histogram but has yet to form a bullish crossover, indicating weak upward momentum.
On the 4-hour chart, gold exhibits a clear bearish trend with sustained downward momentum and limited rebound strength. The price continues to make lower lows, and the Bollinger Bands have turned downward, with the price moving along the lower band. The MACD remains below the zero line, and although the negative histogram has occasionally narrowed, no strong bullish signal has emerged. Key support levels are at $4,550 (recent low) and $4,500 (lower bound of the previous trading range). A break below $4,500 may lead to a test of $4,400, a key medium-term support level. Resistance is seen near $4,700 (short-term moving average) and $4,740 (previous trading range lower bound). Today's trading strategy suggests selling on rallies, with secondary buying on dips. Key resistance is at $4,630–$4,660, while support lies at $4,555–$4,520.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: During early Asian trading on Wednesday, April 29, oil prices surged over 3% as geopolitical tensions escalated. U.S. crude oil revisited the $100 per barrel mark amid supply concerns. Brent crude futures rose 2.8% to $111.26 per barrel, marking a seventh consecutive day of gains, while U.S. crude futures climbed 3.7% to $99.93 per barrel, briefly surpassing $100 during the session. Fears of supply disruptions due to potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed the impact of the UAE's announced withdrawal from OPEC+.
On the daily chart, oil prices have broken below the moving average system, indicating a shift in medium-term trend direction. The MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence, suggesting increasing downward momentum. A corrective pullback is expected in the medium term. On the 1-hour chart, prices have been fluctuating around moving averages, reflecting a short-term consolidation pattern. Early trading saw a rebound from $92.70. The MACD is nearing a bullish crossover above the zero line, signaling weakening bearish momentum. Today's trading is expected to remain within a range of $104.40–$95.40. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies with secondary buying on dips. Key resistance is at $105.0–$108.0, while support lies at $95.0–$92.0.
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