Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has issued a warning that the current market is repeating the mistakes of the 2000 internet bubble era, with investors flocking to chase hot sectors like chips and semiconductors while leaving truly high-quality assets behind.
Speaking on the "All In" podcast released on Wednesday, Ackman stated that short-term capital is flooding into "the new new thing," such as chips, semiconductors, and energy, leading to significant undervaluation of high-quality tech giants like Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Inc., and Microsoft. He personally holds positions in these three companies and established a new position in Microsoft in February after its stock price fell following earnings, characterizing it as a winner in the artificial intelligence field. This statement poses a direct challenge to the current logic of tech stock allocation.
Caution on Software Sector Outlook
Simultaneously, Ackman sounded a note of caution regarding the prospects of the software industry. He specifically named Salesforce.com, suggesting that some software companies have long charged customers monopolistic high prices and face substantial risks under the impact of the AI wave, requiring investors to conduct "very careful analysis" of related targets.
History Repeating: Quality Assets Overlooked
Ackman directly compared the current market sentiment to the herd psychology of the dot-com bubble period. He pointed out that around 2000, investors were obsessed with internet concept stocks, while Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was labeled by the market as an "old asset," with its valuation falling to historically low levels.
"The interesting thing about the market is that people always look to the new new thing," Ackman said. "Truly high-quality things often get forgotten as a result." He believes that Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Inc., and Microsoft are now suffering the same treatment—their valuations are suppressed at unreasonably low levels against the backdrop of capital piling into chips and semiconductors.
Ackman also publicly urged investors to buy stocks a month ago, stating that "the stock prices of high-quality companies have become extremely cheap," taking a clear stance on the long-term allocation value of quality assets.
AI as Both Threat and Opportunity
Ackman's judgment on AI directly influences his stock-picking logic.
He stated that every investor today is exposed to the AI wave, either directly or indirectly, "either as a beneficiary or facing a threat, so you have to understand it." He emphasized that for long-term investors, assessing the probability of AI causing disruptive impact on specific businesses is crucial, and this probability "has increased significantly."
Against the backdrop of the software sector's continued decline this year, Ackman's attitude is quite wary. He named Salesforce.com, suggesting that some niche software companies have long relied on monopolistic positions to charge customers high prices—for example, annual subscription fees of $30,000—and such business models will face severe challenges as AI alternatives emerge. "If you are a software company, you have to integrate AI as deeply as possible," he said.
Evaluating the IPO Wave
Regarding the much-discussed upcoming wave of initial public offerings, Ackman expressed measured interest.
He stated that SpaceX is close to a monopoly in the field of low-cost space launches, an advantage that "will become increasingly important," and he is focused on what the company will look like in five years.
For OpenAI, which is also preparing for an IPO, Ackman finds its business model quite attractive but believes it needs to communicate its capital deployment strategy to the market more clearly. He did not give explicit buy or avoid recommendations for either company, maintaining a prudent tone in his wording.
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