Guosen Securities has released a research report indicating that by 2026, major technology firms are accelerating the iteration speed of AI applications. Under the leadership of OpenClaw, AI applications are evolving from single-point tools into workflow agents. The gaming and IP toy sectors are expected to enter a peak season from March to April, driven by new product releases and holiday effects. The firm maintains an optimistic view on the prosperity of the gaming and IP toy industries and the industrial trend of AI applications. Key points from Guosen Securities are as follows:
In March, the media sector underperformed the market. The Shenwan Media Index fell by 15.02% in March 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 9.49 percentage points, ranking 28th among the 31 primary Shenwan industries. Regarding individual stock performance, Liansheng Technology, Guizhou Cable Network, Guangdong Media Group, and China Sports Industry led gains, while China Citic Press, Bona Film Group, Diansheng Shares, and Qitian Technology were among the top decliners. From a valuation perspective, the current TTM PE ratio of the Shenwan Media Index is 40.1x, positioned at the 70.6th percentile over the past five years.
Game license approvals remain stable, highlighting opportunities driven by new product cycles, sector vitality, and AI applications. In March, 130 domestic games and 3 imported games received approval. From January to March 2026, a total of 467 game licenses were issued, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%. The pace of domestic game license approvals continues steadily, with import licenses also being issued consistently. In February, the actual sales revenue of China's game market reached 33.2 billion yuan, up 19.0% year-on-year. The mobile game market's actual sales revenue was 22.7 billion yuan, increasing by 9.1% year-on-year. Driven by new product cycles, regulatory policies, and AI applications, the sector holds potential for medium- to long-term growth, with a focus on the performance of new releases.
In the variety show market, Mango TV and Tencent lead, while comic-dramas and AI-generated live-action comics are gaining significant popularity. According to Lighthouse Pro data, the total box office revenue in March this year was 2.122 billion yuan, a 10.2% year-on-year increase. The Tomb-Sweeping Day holiday box office, including service fees, reached 305 million yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year, showing relatively subdued performance. In the series market, "Zhu Yu" topped the list of the top 10 online series by full-length playback volume in March with 2.876 billion views, followed by "My Mountain and Sea" and "Love in the Age of Innocence" with 413 million and 386 million views, respectively. In the variety show market, iQiyi's "Universe Blink Please Note" ranked first with an 11.60% market share of full-length online content. Youku's "Friday Night High Crazy" took second place with a 7.40% share, while Mango TV's "Great Detective Season 11" ranked third with a 6.28% share. Among the top ten online variety shows, Mango TV, Tencent, Youku, and iQiyi held 4, 4, 1, and 1 positions, respectively.
In AI applications, AI agents are being deployed on a large scale, and rapid progress is being made in the AI video sector. Alibaba's QoderWork desktop agent is now fully open, integrating with three major instant messaging platforms—DingTalk, WeChat, and Feishu—enabling users to access the full capabilities of desktop AI assistants remotely for tasks such as file organization, data processing, and document generation. OpenAI plans to launch a desktop "super app," aiming to deeply integrate its ChatGPT application, the professional coding platform Codex, and a built-in browser. Tencent has officially released the "Lobster" browser QBotClaw, which supports user-configured connections to major mainstream large models. Alibaba's HappyHorse topped the AI Video Arena leaderboard, leading in both text-to-video and image-to-video categories.
Investment perspective on AI applications: GEO is reshaping the ecosystem for traffic and content services, while advancements in multimodal technology are accelerating cost reduction and efficiency gains in areas like AI comic-dramas and gaming. In GEO marketing, focus is on targets such as Zhewen Interactive and Mobvista. For AI comic-dramas, emphasis is on IP and platforms, with attention on targets including Zhangyue Technology, Kunlun Tech, China Literature, Bilibili, and Kuaishou. New product cycles are expected to drive sustained performance release in the gaming sector. With valuations and crowding at low levels, the gaming sector presents good medium-term allocation value. A bottom-up approach should focus on companies with strong product cycles, solid performance, and tangible AI product deployments, including Giant Network, Century Huatong, Kingnet Network, X.D. Global, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Shunwang Technology, and Shengqu Games. For IP toys, core optimism lies in products and overseas expansion, with Pop Mart being a key focus.
The recommended investment portfolio for March consisted of Giant Network, Pop Mart, Bilibili, Kunlun Tech, and Mobvista, showing overall sound performance. The April portfolio includes Giant Network, Pop Mart, Kunlun Tech, Mobvista, and Shunwang Technology.
Risk warnings include performance below expectations, slower-than-anticipated technological progress, and regulatory policy risks.
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