Protein Meal:
On Thursday, CBOT soybean prices experienced a significant decline, pressured by favorable weather conditions for crop development and falling crude oil prices. A concentrated exodus of capital also contributed to the weakness. Net soybean sales increased by 277,000 tonnes, down 8% from the previous week but up 24% from the four-week average. Sales to China accounted for 75,000 tonnes. In domestic markets, protein meal prices retreated, with spot prices falling below 2,750 yuan per tonne to set a new low. Inventories for both soybeans and soybean meal have risen, eliminating supply concerns for domestic soybean meal. Terminal procurement has slowed, spot markets remain sluggish, and import crush margins for soybeans have improved, maintaining decent buying interest from oil mills. The market awaits guidance from next week's supply and demand reports. For trading, intraday participation is suggested.
Edible Oils:
On Thursday, BMD palm oil declined due to weak demand and a soft performance in U.S. soybean oil. Canola also closed lower, dragged down by weakness in surrounding markets. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon led investors to anticipate a potential end to U.S.-Iran tensions, causing a drop in crude oil prices. Shipment data indicated Malaysia's palm oil exports in May fell by 7.8% to 15.5% month-over-month. Domestically, rapeseed oil was the sole gainer, while palm oil saw a sharp decline. A concentrated withdrawal of long positions accelerated the downward move. The market awaits direction from next week's supply and demand reports. Strategically, long positions in palm oil and rapeseed oil are suggested.
Live Hogs:
On Thursday, the July live hog futures contract was capped by moving averages and closed in negative territory, while the September contract followed the July contract lower, shifting its price range downward. The current national average price for live hogs is 9.55 yuan per kilogram, with the lowest price at 9 yuan/kg in Guizhou and the highest at 10.50 yuan/kg in Guangdong (excluding Hainan). According to MySteel's sample data from key breeding enterprises, the daily national slaughter volume on June 3rd was 281,200 head, up 2.53% from the previous day. Terminal product movement is slow, and slaughterhouses show low enthusiasm for procurement. The average slaughter weight remained flat at 122.94 kg. Policy adjustments continue in the hog market, with measures being refined to alleviate supply pressure. For the September contract, focus remains on the performance around the 12,000 yuan psychological level, with continued attention on potential support levels.
Eggs:
On Thursday, the main egg futures contract (July 2026) experienced a rally and retreat within the session, ultimately closing down 0.86% at 4,363 yuan per 500 kilograms. The August 2026 contract closed down 0.99% at 4,680 yuan per 500 kilograms. Spot prices showed mixed performance, with the national average egg price at 5.27 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.01 yuan. In production areas, prices in Ningjin and Heishan were flat at 5.15 and 5.00 yuan, respectively. In consumption areas, prices in Puxi and Guangzhou were also steady at 5.35 and 5.65 yuan. As spot prices have rebounded to higher levels, downstream acceptance of high prices has diminished. Arrivals in consumption markets increased compared to the previous day, leading to generally stable prices with minor adjustments in a few areas. As southern regions gradually enter the rainy season, spot egg prices are likely to be affected by cautious stockpiling from traders, increasing the probability of a seasonal correction. Short-term futures prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with caution advised against downside risks. Monitor market sentiment and spot prices, while watching for effective technical support in futures.
Corn:
On Friday, the main corn futures contract (July 2026) opened slightly lower and continued its downward trend, fluctuating around the key 2,300 yuan level. During the week, bearish news from import corn auction policies pressured futures prices, indicating policy's dominant role in short-term price action. In the spot market, prices weakened overall due to the futures decline. The availability of substitute grains for corn has increased, including aged rice and imported corn, contributing to bearish sentiment and lackluster short-term price performance. In North China, corn prices continued their weak trend, with some traders choosing to sell before the wheat harvest due to insufficient confidence in future price appreciation. In consumption areas, corn prices traded within a narrow range, driven primarily by essential restocking. Southern ports are seeing concentrated arrivals of imported corn and grains, ensuring ample supply. With new wheat entering the market as a substitute, feed mills are continuously reducing corn inclusion ratios, keeping short-term corn markets under pressure in consumption areas. Overall, supplies of corn and energy ingredients are ample against relatively stable demand, making it difficult for corn prices to shake off their weak trend in the near term. For the July contract, focus remains on the 2,300 yuan level, with short-term trading recommended for now.
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