Several leading Chinese smartphone manufacturers have reportedly revised down their shipment targets for 2026 once more, according to a recent report. The adjustments are attributed to persistent supply chain challenges, including component shortages and rising costs, which continue to disrupt product planning and shipment schedules.
Xiaomi Corp. had previously set a relatively conservative forecast of approximately 135 million units, significantly lower than its 2025 shipment figure of 170 million units. In the latest revision, Xiaomi has reportedly further reduced its full-year shipment expectation by about 30%, to around 95 million units. Similarly, OPPO and Vivo have also lowered their full-year shipment forecasts to below 90 million units. Sources indicate that Honor has informed suppliers that, after achieving a record 71 million shipments in 2025, maintaining growth momentum in 2026 may prove difficult.
As of the latest updates, no smartphone manufacturers have publicly commented on these reports. Supply chain sources note that for most of their domestic mobile phone clients, a 15% reduction from the targets forecast at the end of 2025 has become a common baseline, with some manufacturers seeing cuts of 20% or even 30%. Xiaomi is under particular scrutiny, as its long-standing emphasis on cost-effectiveness makes it more vulnerable when key components like memory, PCBs, and supporting chips all experience simultaneous price increases, potentially squeezing the brand influence built on price advantages.
The report states that Xiaomi, the world's third-largest smartphone brand behind Samsung and Apple, has warned some suppliers that its performance forecasts could be lowered further if supply chain conditions do not improve. In contrast, sources add that demand for components in the aftermarket and for refurbished phones has increased this year, particularly in China, where many consumers are choosing to extend the life cycle of their current devices. Market research firm Counterpoint estimates the refurbished phone market could grow by 13% this year, with demand for new phones being diverted to the second-hand and repair markets.
A domestic smartphone manufacturer expressed concern that planning new products for next year will also be very challenging, stating uncertainty over what components will be available to support product launches, which involves not just memory but also certain types of printed circuit boards and other supporting chips. The report highlights that smartphones are facing spillover effects from the expansion of AI infrastructure. For instance, LPDDR chips, traditionally used in mobile devices, are seeing massive demand from data centers, with a single Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinet using up to 54TB of LPDDR5X memory—equivalent to the memory found in thousands of flagship phones. Consequently, industry insiders say smartphone makers' priority in capacity allocation has been downgraded.
Global mobile chip developers MediaTek and Qualcomm are also shifting their focus towards more profitable data center businesses. MediaTek had previously raised product prices citing component shortages, capacity constraints, extended supplier lead times, and rising material and logistics costs, further increasing smartphone production expenses. The report notes that almost all electronic components are facing price increases or supply constraints, from memory chips and CPUs to printed circuit boards and glass fabric. Advanced chip manufacturing services and packaging capacity are also constrained, with prices rising accordingly.
An executive from a component supplier stated that rising costs for memory chips and many other parts will be an especially heavy burden for smartphone makers focused on mid-to-low-end devices. Their target audience is price-sensitive, making it difficult to fully pass on the increasing costs to consumers. Reducing production targets is their best option; otherwise, they risk losing money on every unit sold. Counterpoint's latest smartphone market outlook report, released on June 1, further lowered its global forecast. It now expects 2026 full-year shipments to decline by approximately 13.9% year-over-year to about 1.08 billion units, a steeper drop than the 12.4% forecast in February, due to intensifying memory supply tightness. Within this, Xiaomi's first-quarter shipments fell 19% year-over-year, the largest decline among the top five manufacturers, with its full-year shipments projected to drop by 28%.
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