Abstract
RXO INC will report results on February 06, 2026 Pre-Market, with current-quarter forecasts pointing to year-over-year revenue contraction and a negative EPS print; investors will watch margins and brokerage demand signals for signs of stabilization.
Market Forecast
Consensus tracking indicates that for the quarter ending in December 2025, RXO INC’s revenue is projected at $1.49 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 10.49%, with EBIT estimated to be $3.96 million and EPS forecast at -$0.03. The company’s last disclosed run-rate data suggest continued pressure on gross margin and net margin given muted peak-season volumes; adjusted EPS is expected to be negative year-over-year, while revenue softness is tied to decelerating spot rate growth.
The company’s core truck brokerage is expected to shoulder the bulk of revenue and set the tone for gross margin mix, while managed transportation and last mile serve as stabilizers through contractual exposure and end-market diversity. The most promising area remains managed transportation given resilient shipper outsourcing demand, although year-over-year comparisons will likely remain mixed until spot-demand and routing guide compliance normalize.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous reported quarter, RXO INC delivered revenue of $1.42 billion, a gross profit margin of 16.61%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent of $0.14 million, a net profit margin of -0.99%, and adjusted EPS of $0.01; the quarter’s GAAP net loss fell quarter-over-quarter by 55.56% as incremental efficiencies and cost control helped narrow losses.
A key financial highlight was sequential performance improvement in profitability metrics even against a soft demand backdrop, reflecting disciplined carrier procurement and expense management. By business line, truck brokerage generated $1.04 billion, last mile contributed $0.31 billion, and managed transportation added $0.14 billion, underscoring the company’s continued reliance on brokerage volumes alongside diversified services exposure.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Truck Brokerage: Margin Discipline vs. Volume Softness
Truck brokerage remains RXO INC’s primary revenue engine and the chief driver of quarterly variability. With the company’s forecast pointing to $1.49 billion in total revenue and market commentary indicating muted peak season, volume elasticity is likely constrained, and spot opportunities appear less accretive than in prior cycles. The challenge is balancing buy rates and sell rates in a market that has seen three consecutive quarters of decelerating spot rate growth, which tends to compress gross spread when contract rate resets lag or when routing guide compliance improves for shippers. Management’s recent operational emphasis suggests carrier sourcing discipline and digital tender acceptance improvements could cushion gross margin, but the forecasted decline in revenue and negative EPS indicate continued spread pressure. The path to upside likely hinges on any late-quarter demand inflection or capacity attrition creating a tighter spot market; absent that, the business will prioritize mix (higher-margin freight acceptance) and network efficiencies to protect contribution margins. Investors should expect management to highlight brokerage load volumes, contract renewal levels, and algorithmic pricing performance as key levers influencing gross margin trajectory into 2026.
Managed Transportation: Stable Book of Business with Incremental Growth Potential
Managed transportation has shown relative resilience due to multiyear contracts and embedded shipper workflows, which typically buffer year-over-year volatility. While it contributed the smallest share of last quarter’s revenue at $0.14 billion, its margin profile and stickiness provide ballast to consolidated results when the spot market is unfavorable. In the current quarter, incremental growth likely comes from wallet share expansion with existing enterprise customers and cross-sell into brokerage for irregular demand, though absolute revenue growth may be tempered by reduced shipper volumes. Margin performance should benefit from procurement synergies and analytics-led routing optimization, limiting downside even as revenue declines at the group level. The segment’s potential to outperform internal averages will depend on the pace of contract repricing into 2026 and the extent to which service level penalties remain subdued in a lower-volatility network environment.
Last Mile: Demand Normalization and Cost Throughput
Last mile delivered $0.31 billion in the prior quarter and continues to navigate retail demand normalization and seasonal variability. The near-term driver for this quarter will be post-holiday run rates and the mix between big-and-bulky delivery and e-commerce-related flows. Network density and route optimization are central to margin stability; any post-peak volume pullback can stress utilization and productivity, possibly weighing on gross margin at the consolidated level. That said, last mile’s contractual structures and surcharges can partially offset variability, and operational discipline in driver routing, damage rates, and on-time percentages remains a margin determinant. If consumer durables demand holds up better than feared and returns activity is efficiently processed, last mile could provide minor upside to consolidated gross margin despite the anticipated revenue decline.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter: Margins, Volume Signs, and Contract Trends
The stock’s reaction will be most sensitive to signs of margin inflection within brokerage, specifically whether gross profit margin stabilizes near the prior quarter’s 16.61% amid lower revenue. Investors will also scrutinize load volume trends and any early indicators that shippers are shifting volumes back to spot channels, which would increase the potential for spread expansion in subsequent quarters. Contract repricing outcomes and bid season commentary will be pivotal, as these set the baseline for first-half 2026 revenue and margin capture; tighter routing guides can weigh on spot opportunities but also create planning stability that benefits managed transportation profitability. Finally, commentary around capacity exits will be a swing factor for the 2026 view, as incremental carrier attrition tightens the market and supports rate improvement, potentially leading to a turnaround in EPS from the forecasted -$0.03 in the quarter at hand.
Analyst Opinions
Analyst commentary published in January 2026 indicates a neutral-to-cautious stance heading into the February 06, 2026 print, with the majority expecting a subdued top line and limited near-term margin expansion given decelerating spot dynamics. Most previews emphasize that the company’s estimated revenue of $1.49 billion implies a 10.49% year-over-year decline and that consensus points to negative EPS of -$0.03, consistent with a freight cycle still searching for a durable inflection. Institutions drawing on freight data aggregates note that digital brokerage execution and cost control may prevent a steeper margin contraction, yet the burden of proof remains on a sustained volume uptick or a more pronounced capacity tightening in early 2026. The dominant view favors patience until evidence emerges of improved spot-to-contract spreads and a clearer pathway to expanding gross margins from the recent 16.61% level, with upside potential skewed to the second half if bid season resets and capacity dynamics turn supportive.
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