Data from Wind indicates that as prices recover, capital has accelerated into domestic gold ETFs, with net inflows into major products surpassing 10 billion yuan since July. The Gold ETF managed by Hua An Fund has set a record of 18 consecutive trading days of net inflows. Institutions judge that gold may continue to consolidate in the short term, but the foundation of its long-term bull market remains intact.
Although short-term gold prices are still constrained by U.S. Treasury yields and may maintain a bottoming pattern, central bank gold purchases and the global "de-dollarization" trend are steadily building long-term upward momentum. The fundamental logic for a sustained gold bull run remains solid.
A recent research report from Zheshang Securities notes that gold investment demand showed significant divergence in the second quarter. Over-the-counter (OTC) investment grew notably, while gold ETFs shifted from net inflows to net outflows. Specifically, OTC trading and other demand surged 91% year-on-year to 327 tonnes, up 34% from the first quarter. In contrast, global gold ETFs experienced net outflows of 44.8 tonnes in the second quarter, indicating that financial attribute investments are under considerable pressure amid high price volatility.
Meanwhile, demand for gold jewelry remains weak. Global gold jewelry consumption fell 17% year-on-year to 278 tonnes, down 5% quarter-on-quarter. However, due to elevated gold prices, the total spending on jewelry remains at a relatively high level, reflecting persistent consumer preference for gold.
In response, Zheshang Securities stated it is optimistic about a phased rebound in gold prices in the short term. Following the recent price correction, gold exchange-traded positions have become cleaner. Speculative short-term funds that had been betting on interest rate expectations have largely exited, fully releasing the concentrated selling pressure risk. This has significantly reduced the upward resistance for bullish positioning. With multiple external catalysts materializing, conditions for a gold price recovery are in place.
Overall, Zheshang Securities judges that the dominant role of investment demand has further strengthened. However, financial attribute investments (ETFs) are constrained by high price volatility and the interest rate environment, making it difficult for them to return to their 2025 highs in the short term.
Additionally, despite gold's lackluster performance over the past six months, Wall Street analysts predict that the price trend may soon reverse. Scott Rubner, an analyst at Citadel Securities, has released a report urging investors to start building structural exposure to gold. This is his first recommendation for gold exposure since early 2026. He describes the current precious metals market landscape as "one of the most attractive environments for an upside move in the precious metals sector in months."
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