Goldman Sachs Group stated in an email announcement that there is significant upside potential for its gold price forecast of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 if U.S. private investors allocate capital to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted that gold ETFs currently represent only 0.17% of private financial portfolios. They identified gold ETFs as the most versatile tool for measuring gold exposure in the U.S. market.
The analysts pointed out that current gold exposure remains below the 2012 peak, stating, "Current gold holdings are still relatively low."
Goldman Sachs estimates that every 1 basis point increase in gold allocation within U.S. financial portfolios could drive gold prices up by 1.4%. This projection is based on the impact of new purchases rather than price appreciation of existing holdings.
The report highlighted, "Long-term capital allocators are considering increasing gold exposure as a strategic portfolio diversification tool. Even modest reallocation of funds from global bond and equity portfolios to gold could significantly boost prices in the relatively small gold market."
According to Goldman's analysis of 13F filings, fewer than half of the largest U.S. investors currently hold gold ETFs. Among those with exposure, allocations range between 0.1% and 0.5% of reported assets.
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