Orient Securities has released a research report stating that, according to Eli Lilly's disclosed 2025 performance, Tirzepatide achieved annual sales of $36.507 billion, representing a 122% increase. The drug has been crowned the 2025 global "Blockbuster Drug King" and is expected to maintain this title for multiple years. According to Evaluate projections, approximately half of the top ten global drugs by sales by 2030 will be GLP-1 class medications. Currently, multinational corporations view the weight loss sector as a core strategic priority, with frequent high-value business development deals and mergers and acquisitions, leading to a catalyst-rich environment this year. Recent business development activity in the weight loss field continues, with future opportunities expected in new areas such as oral small molecules, ultra-long-acting GLP-1 drugs, and small nucleic acids. The main viewpoints from Orient Securities are as follows:
Tirzepatide has been crowned the "Blockbuster Drug King," and weight loss medications are set to dominate the sales charts. On February 4, 2026, Eli Lilly released its 2025 performance, showing Tirzepatide sales of $36.507 billion for the full year, a 122% increase. This secures its title as the 2025 global "Blockbuster Drug King," with expectations it will hold the position for years. Previously, Merck reported its 2025 results, with the former "Blockbuster Drug King" (for 2023 and 2024), Pembrolizumab, achieving full-year sales of $31.7 billion, a 7% increase. It is noteworthy that Novo Nordisk's Semaglutide reached approximately $34.606 billion in sales for 2025, an 18% increase, ranking second. Evaluate predicts that around half of the top ten global drugs by sales by 2030 will be GLP-1 class drugs. Furthermore, candidates like Cagrisema, Orforglipron, Retatrutide, Amycretin, and MariTide are also viewed as having significant sales potential in the research pipeline.
Weight loss has become a strategic priority for multinational corporations, with a high density of catalysts expected this year. In recent years, MNCs have invested heavily in the weight loss field, with substantial business development and M&A activity being frequent. At the JPM conference, major MNCs also highlighted weight loss as a core strategic focus: 1) Eli Lilly: expects Orforglipron approval in the second quarter of 2026; Retatrutide will continue to report data; Eloralintide and Brenipatide are set to begin Phase III clinical trials this year. 2) Novo Nordisk: launched an oral version of Wegovy; CagriSema is expected to gain approval within the year; on the BD front, it will continue seeking assets complementary to its current pipeline. 3) Pfizer: projects the weight loss market will reach $150 billion by 2030 and will initiate 10 Phase III studies for ultra-long-acting GLP-1 drugs this year. 4) Roche: aims to become a top-three player and will report Phase II data for five weight loss drugs this year.
Business development in weight loss continues, with demand emerging for new approaches. Since the end of last year, deal-making in the weight loss sector has persisted. On December 30, 2025, Sound Pharmaceuticals entered an agreement with Roche, licensing Roche the use of specific oral GLP-1 agonist patents, with an upfront payment reaching $100 million. On January 30, 2026, CSPC PHARMA signed a strategic R&D collaboration and licensing agreement with AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca gained rights to eight preclinical projects—including the clinical-ready long-acting GLP1R/GIPR agonist SYH2082—as well as rights to utilize sustained-release delivery technology and an AI discovery platform for innovative long-acting peptide drugs. The upfront payment was $1.2 billion, with the total deal value potentially reaching $18.5 billion. Areas such as oral small molecules and ultra-long-acting GLP-1 drugs remain relatively under-explored by MNCs. Recently, small nucleic acids have also shown breakthroughs in reducing fat while preserving muscle mass. Future demand in these new directions is expected to create investment opportunities. Related investment targets include ASCLETIS-B, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Yuwell Pharmaceutical, CSPC PHARMA, and Synergy Pharmaceutical.
Risks include the potential for innovative drug R&D failure, intensifying market competition, and risks associated with the commercialization of innovative drugs.
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