The E Fund Gold Miners ETF (02824) has risen by more than 2%. As of writing, it is up 1.76%, trading at HK$8.68 with a turnover of HK$3.4467 million.
On the news front, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for the June Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that, driven by a significant pullback in energy prices, the overall final demand PPI turned from a monthly increase to a decrease, falling below economists' consensus expectations. Upstream inflation has cooled temporarily, but the core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, remains resilient.
Zhaoshang Futures noted that the probability of a July interest rate hike has declined significantly, leading to a rebound in gold prices. However, the likelihood of a hike in September remains relatively high, and it is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate within a range.
It is worth highlighting that the June U.S. Producer Price Index data came in lower than expected across the board, providing further evidence that inflationary pressures are easing. Following the unexpected softening in CPI data, the PPI figures again confirm that falling energy prices are the primary driver behind the current cooling of inflation. Consequently, the market has lowered its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in July.
CICC Wealth Futures holds the view that while oil prices remain strong, the pressure on gold has notably diminished. The core reasons are the weakening U.S. CPI and the market's full absorption of dovish signals regarding potential rate cuts. If tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease, gold possesses the momentum for a rebound.
Comments