Earning Preview: Intuitive Surgical Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 20.91%, and institutional views are broadly positive

Earnings Agent01-15

Abstract

Intuitive Surgical will report quarterly results on October 21, 2025, Post Market, and the company’s upcoming print is set against consensus forecasts calling for robust top-line and earnings growth; this preview consolidates recent operating trends and institutional expectations for the period.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, market expectations center on Intuitive Surgical’s total revenue at $2.72 billion, with year-over-year growth of 20.91%, EBIT at $0.96 billion with year-over-year growth of 27.00%, and adjusted EPS at $2.24 with year-over-year growth of 24.77%. Forecast commentary also implies a supportive margin backdrop; gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to remain healthy in line with recent trends. The company’s main business remains Products and Services, with Products as the revenue anchor and Services as recurring support. The most promising segment is Products at $2.11 billion last quarter, which underpinned scale and operating leverage; Services delivered $0.40 billion and continued to provide high-visibility revenue.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Intuitive Surgical reported revenue of $2.51 billion, a gross profit margin of 66.36%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.70 billion, a net profit margin of 28.12%, and adjusted EPS of $2.40, with year-over-year growth of 30.44%. A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter growth of net profit at 6.99%, reflecting cost discipline and throughput efficiencies across the installed base. Main business momentum was led by Products at $2.11 billion and Services at $0.40 billion, with the mix supporting ongoing utilization and upgrade cycles.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Trajectory

The core revenue engine remains the Products portfolio, which includes robotic systems and instruments/consumables tied to procedure volumes. The forecast revenue increase to $2.72 billion indicates continued procedure growth and stable utilization, which typically translates into higher pull-through on instruments. With gross margin anchored at elevated levels, the business benefits from manufacturing scale and pricing discipline, while the installed base expansion supports future Services revenue. The cadence of system placements, combined with procedure growth in general surgery and urology, positions the main business to sustain double-digit revenue expansion through consistent capital demand and consumable attachment.

Most Promising Segment

Products, at $2.11 billion last quarter, remains the most promising segment given its direct linkage to procedure activity and the renewal cycle of instruments. The forecasted acceleration in total company revenue implies a corresponding uplift in instrument and accessory demand, which typically carries attractive margins and resilience. As hospitals optimize throughput, the modular nature of instruments supports incremental revenue as case mix broadens. While Services at $0.40 billion offers recurring revenue and long-term visibility through maintenance contracts, Products provides the majority of near-term growth, aided by system placements and the ongoing upgrade cycle across the installed base.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three focal factors are likely to influence the stock near-term. First, procedure growth trajectory and system placement commentary versus expectations will shape revenue visibility; outperformance relative to the projected $2.72 billion could recalibrate growth assumptions. Second, margin dynamics, particularly gross margin sustainability near the mid-60% range and operating leverage evident in EBIT at $0.96 billion, will be scrutinized for durability. Third, management’s qualitative outlook on utilization trends, capital demand, and the pipeline of new features or upgrades can inform the Services ramp and instrument renewals. Any signals of consistent year-over-year EPS expansion toward $2.24 and above may reinforce the growth narrative and support valuation.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary over the past six months tilts bullish, with the majority emphasizing healthy procedure trends, robust capital demand, and resilient margins. Analysts highlight that recent quarters demonstrated upside versus estimates, as seen with actual revenue at $2.51 billion and adjusted EPS at $2.40, outpacing prior forecasts. The prevailing view anticipates another solid print supported by the cadence of placements and utilization, with consensus pointing to $2.72 billion revenue and $2.24 adjusted EPS. Several well-followed brokers frame the setup favorably, noting a constructive risk-reward given top-line acceleration and EBIT expansion to $0.96 billion. The bullish stance focuses on execution consistency, the breadth of clinical adoption across procedures, and the durability of recurring revenue from Services that complements Products-led growth.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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