Lithium Mining Stocks Surge During Trading Session as Supply-Demand Dynamics Converge in Carbonate Market

Lithium mining stocks experienced a notable uptick during the trading session. Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) rose by 6.72% to HK$67.5, while Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772) increased by 3.04% to HK$86.5 at the time of writing. The movement follows a recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which surpassed 180,000 yuan. The main lithium carbonate contract for September 2026 was up over 3%, reaching 185,500 yuan per ton.

Market data indicates that China's energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 215 GWh in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 139% year-on-year increase. Leading manufacturers have already scheduled production orders through late 2026 to the second quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, supply-side conditions are expected to tighten. The world's largest hard-rock lithium mine, Greenbushes, recently lowered its production guidance. Additional concerns over lithium supply capacity have been fueled by export restrictions on lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe and shipping disruptions from Australia.

Notably, UBS has significantly revised its lithium price forecasts upward, stating that the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. According to UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw, this cycle features three simultaneous demand-side drivers: stronger energy storage demand, improved economic viability of electric vehicles, and accelerated adoption of electric trucks in China. While supply is expected to respond, the pace of adjustment may lag. UBS raised its near-term price forecast for 6% Li₂O spodumene concentrate by up to 23%, with the long-term price increasing by 17% to US$1,400 per ton. Mid-term forecasts for battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were raised by 17% to 47%, though long-term price projections remain unchanged.