Aluminum stocks saw another round of gains. At the time of writing, RUSAL (00486) was up 14.81%, trading at HKD 6.9; CHALCO (02600) rose 4.55% to HKD 13.79; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) increased 2.57%, reaching HKD 36.78; CHUANGXIN IND (02788) climbed 2.38% to HKD 27.48. The catalyst for the movement was a recent report from Citigroup, which stated that a structural bull market is forming in the aluminum sector. The front-loading and recovery of domestic aluminum demand in China are providing incremental support for aluminum consumption, expected to materialize by early 2026. Concurrently, the fundamental picture is shifting from supply constraints to a structural shortage. Citigroup forecasts a modest structural deficit of 61,000 metric tons for 2026. The bank has also raised its 0-3 month aluminum price target from $2,950 per ton to $3,400 per ton. Huachuang Securities expressed continued optimism regarding the dividend attributes of the electrolytic aluminum sector. It estimates the industry's average profit for the current week to be around 7,600 yuan per ton and expects profits to remain at high levels going forward. From a dividend distribution perspective, as electrolytic aluminum enterprises have generally entered a phase of sustained cash flow repair and enhanced profit stability in recent years, and given the sector's low future capital expenditure intensity, listed companies widely possess both the capability and the willingness to increase returns to shareholders. The sector's characteristics as a dividend-paying asset are becoming increasingly prominent, leading to a positive outlook on both the elasticity and the dividend appeal of the electrolytic aluminum industry.
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