CMSC has released a research report noting that valuations remain at low levels and investors should watch for peak-season pricing catalysts.
The anti-involution policy tone continues, overall competition in the industry remains controllable, and profitability is expected to sustain high growth.
At present, the industry's valuation attractiveness and medium-to-long-term allocation value remain relatively high, and in the short term it is advisable to watch for pricing catalysts in core grain-producing regions during peak season.
Recommended names: ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), YTO Express (600233.SH), STO Express (002468.SZ), and S.F. Holding (002352.SZ).
The main points of the CMSC report are as follows: This month's focus is on orderly competition within the industry, gradual optimization of the competitive landscape, and valuation repair opportunities driven by earnings growth.
Core express delivery industry data
In August 2026, volume growth slowed on a year-on-year basis, with nationwide express delivery volume reaching 16.60 billion parcels, up 2.7% year on year, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Per-parcel pricing rose on a year-on-year basis, with revenue per parcel at 7.66 yuan, up 4.0% year on year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of revenue, express delivery business revenue reached 127.15 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year, a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Regional express delivery data
In August 2026, the eastern, central, and western regions recorded express delivery volumes above designated size of 11.5 billion, 3.3 billion, and 1.7 billion parcels, respectively, changing by +1.1%, +5.9%, and +8% year on year.
Revenue per parcel for express delivery above designated size in the eastern, central, and western regions was 8.1 yuan, 6 yuan, and 7.9 yuan, respectively, changing by +5.3%, +1.6%, and +0.8% year on year.
The eastern, central, and western regions generated express delivery revenue above designated size of 93.71 billion, 19.83 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan, respectively, changing by +6.5%, +7.5%, and +8.9% year on year.
Express delivery data by product category
In August 2026, intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery revenue reached 6.27 billion, 60.30 billion, and 13.29 billion yuan, respectively, changing by +4.3%, +3.9%, and +12.8% year on year.
Intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery volumes reached 1.25 billion, 15.03 billion, and 320 million parcels, respectively, changing by -5.8%, +3.7%, and -6.8% year on year.
Revenue per parcel for intra-city, inter-city, and international (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) express delivery was 5.02 yuan, 4.01 yuan, and 41.53 yuan, respectively, changing by +10.7%, +0.2%, and +21.0% year on year.
Consumption data
From January to August, cumulative total retail sales of consumer goods reached 32.76 trillion yuan, up 1.1% year on year.
Within that, cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 8.42 trillion yuan, up 4.3% year on year.
The corresponding cumulative e-commerce penetration rate for January to August reached 25.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year on year.
Core data of listed express delivery companies
Volume growth diverged among companies.
In August 2026, S.F. Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Holding, and STO Express completed express delivery volumes of 1.29 billion, 2.84 billion, 2.10 billion, and 2.53 billion parcels, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.5%, +12.9%, -2.1%, and +18.0% (including the impact of the merger with Daniao Logistics, same below).
On per-parcel pricing, in August, revenue per parcel for S.F. Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Holding, and STO Express was 14.3 yuan, 2.1 yuan, 2.1 yuan, and 2.1 yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7.8%, -4.7%, +10.4%, and +3.4%, and month-on-month changes of -1.0%, -0.5%, -0.9%, and +3.4%.
In terms of revenue, in August, S.F. Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Holding, and STO Express generated express delivery revenue of 18.4 billion, 5.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.4%, +8.0%, +8.4%, and +21.9%.
In terms of market share, in August, S.F. Holding, YTO Express, Yunda Holding, and STO Express had volume market shares of 7.7%, 17.1%, 12.7%, and 15.3%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.0, +1.5, -0.6, and +2.0 percentage points, and month-on-month changes of +0.0, +0.1, -0.1, and +0.0 percentage points.
Investment recommendation
Investment view: valuations are low, and investors should watch for peak-season pricing catalysts.
From monthly and weekly data, in August 2026 express delivery revenue rose 6.9% year on year, while express delivery volume rose 2.7% year on year.
Within that, August express delivery volume reached 16.60 billion parcels, up 2.7% year on year, and express delivery revenue reached 127.15 billion yuan, up 6.9% year on year.
From September 28, 2026 to October 4, 2026, express parcel collections amounted to 3.38 billion parcels, down 9.1% month on month but up 3.5% year on year.
Delivery volume was 3.44 billion parcels, down 9.9% month on month and down 2.2% year on year.
The anti-involution policy tone continues, overall competition in the industry remains controllable, and profitability is expected to sustain high growth.
At present, the industry's valuation attractiveness and medium-to-long-term allocation value remain relatively high, and in the short term it is advisable to watch for pricing catalysts in core grain-producing regions during peak season.
Recommended names: ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), YTO Express (600233.SH), STO Express (002468.SZ), and S.F. Holding (002352.SZ).
(The original text did not provide individual stock target prices.)
Risk warning
Worsening price wars, instability among franchisee outlets, a sharp slowdown in macroeconomic growth, a substantial rise in costs, and major changes in international trade policy.
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