After three consecutive years of decline, lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) has shown notable price movements recently. Data indicates that since Q4, domestic LiPF6 prices have surged rapidly, with spot prices rising from CNY 61,000 per ton at the end of September to CNY 107,500 per ton by late October—a monthly increase of 76%. The sharp price rebound, coupled with the Q3 earnings season, has reignited institutional interest in leading producers like Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (Tinci Materials).
"The rally is primarily driven by booming demand from downstream new energy and energy storage sectors, tight supply due to cautious capacity expansions, and raw material price fluctuations," noted industry leader Do-Fluoride during a recent investor briefing. Feedback from other major players suggests that LiPF6 prices may continue climbing due to years of subdued capital expenditures in the industry. Supply-demand tightness could persist until 2026, with other additives also facing potential price hikes.
As improved industry sentiment boosts earnings expectations, some analysts have significantly raised target prices for related firms. For instance, on November 3, one institution set a CNY 67.75 target for Tinci Materials—nearly 70% above its current price—while brokerages like China Merchants Securities named it a top November pick.
**Limited Supply Elasticity** In February 2022, LiPF6 prices peaked at CNY 590,000 per ton but plummeted to below CNY 50,000 by July 2023 after a prolonged downtrend. However, as battery makers ramped up production for peak season demand, upstream materials like lithium carbonate and LiPF6 began rebounding. The rally accelerated in Q4, with LiPF6 prices jumping from CNY 60,000 to over CNY 100,000 per ton in just a month.
"Q3 2025 saw lower average LiPF6 selling prices, leading to losses, but prices have been rising steadily, especially for non-contract sales," remarked Jiangxi Jixiang New Materials. Statistics show Q3’s average LiPF6 price was CNY 53,500 per ton, but Q4’s average (as of November 3) climbed to CNY 80,300. Some firms even anticipate further gains in November and December, with spot prices already hitting CNY 110,000.
Do-Fluoride projects the supply tightness may last until 2026, supporting further price upside. Notably, the top three domestic LiPF6 producers—Tinci Materials, Do-Fluoride, and Jiangxi Jixiang—collectively hold over 66% of the market, with 2024 effective capacities of 110,000, 65,000, and 37,000 tons, respectively.
Tinci Materials highlighted that most small players lack expansion confidence post-cycle, leaving supply growth to leaders. However, near-term capacity additions remain limited: Tinci’s upgrades are pending approvals; Do-Fluoride’s 20,000-ton project awaits environmental assessments; and Jiangxi Jixiang’s 15,000-ton expansion won’t yield output until September 2026.
**Tinci Materials in Focus** The LiPF6 rebound is expected to restore profitability for producers, potentially visible as early as Q4. For example, Jiangxi Jixiang—deriving 67% of H1 revenue from LiPF6—reported a Q3 net loss of CNY 49 million, mainly due to lithium carbonate hedging losses. With LiPF6 prices outpacing raw material costs, breakeven appears achievable.
This earnings recovery logic extends to Tinci Materials, prompting bullish calls. On November 3, one analyst set a two-year profit forecast gap of CNY 1.06 billion (2025) versus CNY 5.18 billion (2026), reflecting strong growth confidence. Tinci Materials has been named a top November pick by at least three brokerages.
However, stock prices have already surged: since LiPF6’s August trough, Tinci Materials, Do-Fluoride, and Jiangxi Jixiang have rallied 250.3%, 119.9%, and 113.4%, respectively. Any shortfall in LiPF6 price gains or earnings delivery could heighten volatility risks.
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