GTHT has released a research report maintaining an Overweight rating on HAIDILAO (06862). The firm forecasts the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be RMB 43.183 billion, RMB 45.691 billion, and RMB 49.373 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1%, 6%, and 8%. It predicts net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period to be RMB 4.038 billion, RMB 4.510 billion, and RMB 5.024 billion.
Based on comparable company valuations within the industry and considering HAIDILAO's position as a leading domestic restaurant chain, GTHT assigns the company a higher-than-industry-average 2026 PE ratio of 22x. This results in a target market capitalization of HK$112.8 billion and a target price of HK$20.23.
Key points from the report are as follows:
The reappointment of the founder as CEO is expected to enhance employee motivation and improve management efficiency. Since its listing, HAIDILAO has undergone various phases including rapid expansion, strategic adjustment, and multi-brand development, with management changes aligning with these stages. Initially, Mr. Zhang Yong served as Chairman and CEO, overseeing overall management and strategic development. As the founder, he led the company through its IPO and established its leading market position. Between 2022 and 2025, Ms. Yang Lijuan and Mr. Gou Yiqun respectively led the implementation of the Woodpecker Plan/Hard Bone Plan and the Pomegranate Plan. Effective January 13, 2026, Mr. Zhang Yong has been reappointed as CEO, a move anticipated to boost staff morale and enhance management execution and communication effectiveness.
The single-store model possesses optimization flexibility, and there remains room for expansion of the main brand. Firstly, against a backdrop of recovering consumer demand, the table turnover rate is expected to increase, while digitalization improves operational efficiency. Based on 2024 annual report data, the break-even point for HAIDILAO's directly operated restaurants corresponds to a table turnover rate of less than 2.5 times per day. When the turnover rate reaches 4 times per day, the store operating profit margin is approximately 15.5%; at 4.4 times per day, the margin is about 16.1%; and at 4.8 times per day, it reaches around 16.6%. Therefore, if consumer demand recovers and the table turnover rate rises, the profitability of individual stores has significant potential for upward optimization. Secondly, analysis suggests the potential for over 1,800 HAIDILAO main brand stores domestically, with the franchising model aiding expansion into lower-tier markets.
The Pomegranate Plan is progressing steadily. In 2024, the group officially launched the "Pomegranate Plan," aimed at encouraging the incubation and development of more new restaurant brands to foster innovation in food service. As of June 30, 2025, besides HAIDILAO hot pot, the company operated 126 restaurants under 14 other catering brands. Notably, 46 new "Yan Qing Barbecue Shop" outlets opened in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 70 by June 30, 2025. Revenue from other restaurant brands reached RMB 597 million in H1 2025, a significant increase of 227% year-on-year. Looking ahead, segments like barbecue, mini hot pot, and sushi possess considerable expansion potential.
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