China Galaxy Securities has released a research report stating that in 2025, the wind, solar, and storage industry saw profit recovery amid a supply glut, with overseas markets emerging as a bright spot. For 2026, under the dual forces of "anti-involution" and technological synergy, the industry is expected to embark on a new cycle. Investment focus should be on opportunities arising from the industrialization of new technologies, global expansion, and supply-demand improvements. The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
Review of 2025 and Outlook for 2026: In 2025, the oversupply situation in the wind, solar, and storage sectors persisted, but "anti-involution" efforts drove profit recovery, while expansion overseas boosted earnings. As of December 31, 2025, the CSI 300 Index rose by 17.66%; the ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%; and the Power and New Energy Index increased by 39.47%, ranking 7th out of 30 sectors. Policy Document No. 136 is accelerating the full market integration of new energy. In 2026, the combination of anti-involution and technological advancements, along with the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, is set to initiate a new cycle for new energy. Demand from AIDC energy storage pairing, offshore wind power, and grid parity for solar and storage in emerging markets will remain highlights.
Energy Storage: Driven by both policy and market forces domestically and internationally, Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with large-scale storage being the core growth area. In North America, AIDC energy storage pairing, driven by backup power logic, is projected to see demand rise from approximately 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW by 2030, representing a CAGR of about 84%. Under the green power direct connection logic, demand is expected to increase from about 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of around 44%. Europe is anticipated to enter a concentrated implementation period over the next 3-5 years (e.g., UK, Germany, Poland). Demand for commercial and industrial storage in Europe, as well as residential storage in Australia and emerging markets, remains strong, leading to a surge in overseas orders for Chinese companies. Domestically, standalone storage projects offer attractive Internal Rates of Return (IRR), with an estimated CAGR of about 37% from 2025 to 2027. Commercial and industrial storage is shifting from spread arbitrage to creating diversified value.
Wind Power: The trend of volume and profit growth continues, with accelerated development in both offshore and overseas markets opening up new space. Domestic onshore/offshore wind installations in 2026 are projected to be 110-120 GW/12-16 GW, potentially exceeding 120 GW/year for onshore and 15 GW/year for offshore during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The global offshore wind market is expected to achieve a CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2030. Restrained involution and heightened quality awareness have led to stabilized onshore turbine prices and limited downside for offshore wind. The industry chain's overseas expansion is accelerating, with a dense flow of overseas orders. Profit recovery for OEMs is anticipated, while export of submarine cables and foundations offers incremental profit growth, and component suppliers benefit from improved capacity utilization and overseas expansion.
Solar PV: Profit recovery driven by anti-involution efforts, with new technology iterations and global layout leading growth. China continues to lead, with 2026 installations potentially reaching 230-250 GW (optimistic scenario). Europe is showing signs of recovery, while the US and India remain strong, and emerging markets are gaining momentum. The industry's anti-involution trend is driving profit recovery across the entire supply chain, with sequential price increases for modules expected, potentially becoming visible as early as Spring. BC cell capacity expansion, perovskite moving towards mass production, and low-silver paste technology breakthroughs are pushing technological iteration, enabling premium pricing and cost reduction.
Investment Recommendations: 1) Focus on the accelerated industrialization of new PV technologies like BC, perovskite, and copper paste; suggested stocks include LONGi Green Energy Technology, Aiko Solar, Jinko Solar, JA Technology, and Sino-Platinum Metals. 2) Benefit from global dividends through overseas expansion; suggested stocks include Goldwind Science & Technology, Dajin Heavy Industry, Orient Cable, Sany Renewable Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sungrow Power Supply, DeYe Smart Energy, Hyper Strong, Sieyuan Electric, and Canadian Solar. 3) The inflection point in the supply-demand improvement cycle is approaching; suggested stocks include Tongwei Stock, Tebian Electric Apparatus, GCL Technology, Jinlei Technology, and GoodWe.
Risk Warning: Risks include potential underperformance of industry policies, slower-than-expected progress in new technologies, significant increases in raw material prices leading to operational difficulties for enterprises, and risks associated with overseas political instability and deteriorating trade environments.
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