The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's 15th Five-Year Plan period, and the nation's foreign trade sector has started the year with performance exceeding expectations. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total import and export value of goods trade reached 7.73 trillion yuan from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, significantly accelerating from the growth rate for the full year of 2025. Exports amounted to 4.62 trillion yuan, rising by 19.2%, while imports reached 3.11 trillion yuan, increasing by 17.1%, demonstrating strong resilience and dynamic development in foreign trade. Against the backdrop of an uneven global economic recovery and rising trade protectionism, such a strong start is particularly noteworthy.
Analysis by Reuters suggested that China's actual economic performance is stronger than some previous external forecasts, driven by sustained robust export growth. Simultaneously, rising imports indicate strengthening domestic demand and resource reserve capacity. Bloomberg also pointed out that China's economy achieved a better-than-forecast rebound at the beginning of 2026, with stronger-than-expected trade performance being a key supporting factor. Beyond the sheer growth in trade volume, the data reflects an ongoing reshaping of China's industrial structure, trade composition, and growth drivers, signaling a profound transformation in foreign trade from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvement.
The drivers of export growth continue to strengthen. Shifting focus from the "growth rate" to the "structure" reveals the higher quality of this data. Observations by Qin Qian, an international relations expert at East China University of Political Science and Law, indicate that technological innovation and industrial innovation, fostering the development of new quality productive forces, are significant factors propelling the current export growth. High-value, high-tech products such as semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and intelligent equipment are becoming new growth points. He noted that a new wave of global investment in data centers, cloud servers, and computing power infrastructure is also continuously driving exports of related Chinese products through industrial chains involving integrated circuits, server motherboards, high-speed memory, power equipment, communication devices, and fiber optic interconnects.
Data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics corroborates this: from January to February, exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 24.3%, and exports of high-tech products increased by 24.2%, indicating a clear shift in the structure of export growth drivers. From a longer-term perspective, the structure of China's export commodities is undergoing a profound qualitative change. Wang Siyu, an associate professor at the School of International Organizations and Trade Negotiations at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, pointed out that China's export commodity structure has already transitioned from consumer goods to intermediate goods. Data shows that the share of intermediate goods in China's exports surged from 41.9% in 2017 to 47.4% in 2025, while the share of consumer goods dropped from 36.6% to 28.7%. This signifies that China is increasingly supplying the world with deeply embedded intermediate goods like integrated circuits, mechanical and electrical products, and chemical materials. Once integrated into the global industrial chain, such products are far more difficult to replace than final consumer goods.
In the view of Bai Ming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, the significance of this change lies not only in "selling more" but also in the evolving way "Made in China" participates in global competition. He noted that while Chinese exports previously relied more on price advantages, they now increasingly depend on technology, brand, quality, and service to form comprehensive competitiveness. Particularly with the accelerated export growth of products like integrated circuits, ships, and new energy vehicles, new growth drivers in foreign trade are continuously emerging, forming not just the "new three" but potentially "new four" or "new five" categories. This suggests that the optimization of China's export structure is not a short-term phenomenon but a result of持续推进的产业升级 (ongoing industrial upgrading).
Beyond the upgrading of the export commodity structure, the geographical layout of China's foreign trade markets is also undergoing rapid adjustment. The US market, which long held a significant position, is relatively receding in China's overall export landscape. Meanwhile, the importance of ASEAN, the European Union, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative is rising. Customs data shows that from January to February, trade between China and ASEAN totaled 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%; trade with the EU reached 998.94 billion yuan, up 19.9%; while trade with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, down 16.9%. During the same period, China's total imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries reached 4.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 20%. This shift reflects a re-diversification of China's foreign trade risk exposure and a restructuring of the logic behind its trade growth.
Wang Siyu stated that China's export market pattern is undergoing a profound "rebalancing." This regional structural change, characterized by a "decline in the US, rise in emerging markets, and stability in Europe," means that China's exports are becoming less sensitive to fluctuations in any single market, while their growth resilience is increasing. In this process, ASEAN holds particular prominence. Wang pointed out that ASEAN not only remains China's largest trading partner but is also becoming a key region for the deep integration of Chinese industrial chains. Since the full implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), complementarity between China and ASEAN in mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors like electronic components and mechanical and electrical products has continuously strengthened. There is strong demand for Chinese high-value-added products in countries like Singapore and Malaysia, and cooperation in emerging areas such as the green economy and digital trade is expanding.
Qin Qian also believes that the construction and upgrading of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area have further deepened regional economic integration. An increasing number of Chinese companies are "going global" through outward investment, establishing transnational industrial and supply chains in Southeast Asia. This deeper industrial synergy is becoming an important foundation for China's foreign trade to withstand external shocks. Latin America and the Middle East are also significant pivots for China's foreign trade growth. Wang Siyu mentioned that as China is Latin America's second-largest trading partner, trade has seen high-speed growth for seven consecutive years, with markets like Brazil and Argentina continuously releasing potential. In the Middle East, driven by policies such as Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and the UAE's "Digital Economy Strategy," cooperation with China in areas like mechanical and electrical products, photovoltaic equipment, smart terminals, infrastructure, new energy, and information and communication technology is heating up. She believes that, from trade complementarity to the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative, markets in ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, with their high growth rates, vast potential, and friendly policy environments, are fully capable of absorbing transferred external demand and becoming new supports for the high-quality development of China's foreign trade.
As the market layout becomes more diversified and regional industrial chain synergy tightens, the unilateral impact of US-initiated tariff wars and trade wars on China's foreign trade is being continuously dispersed and weakened. In Bai Ming's view, the deepening trade links between China, ASEAN, and the EU mean that the support pillars for China's foreign trade are becoming more diversified. Even facing external challenges like rising trade protectionism and geopolitical disturbances, China's foreign trade can maintain strong resilience, precisely due to the results of this market structure adjustment. Bai pointed out that, in practical terms, China's foreign trade has not lost growth momentum due to the contraction of the US market. On the contrary, under external pressure, Chinese companies have accelerated their exploration of emerging markets and optimized their global layout, actually expanding the maneuvering room for foreign trade development. In this sense, the "de-Americanization" of the market is not simply about trade substitution but represents a proactive process by China to diversify risks and reshape the pivot points for foreign trade growth.
While exports maintained rapid growth, the recovery in China's imports was also notable. Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, recently stated that China's goods imports grew by 17.1% in January-February, 16.6 percentage points faster than the growth rate for the full year 2025, with the recovery幅度 (extent of recovery) exceeding that of exports. "This reflects both the pull of improving domestic demand on imports and also signifies new opportunities for developing trade with countries worldwide." This gives the current strong trade start a different implication compared to the past. Previously, external discussions about China's economy often focused more on export performance and manufacturing capacity, viewing China as a key link in the global supply system. However, the significant import recovery now allows the international community to see that China's economic recovery is not solely driven by external demand but is also supported by improving domestic demand.
The Financial Times noted that China's import growth in the first two months was also significantly higher than expected, making it difficult to simply characterize the Chinese economy as "single-wheel driven by exports." The report suggested that the simultaneous strength in imports indicates not only a recovery in China's production and investment activities but also the continued enhancement of the Chinese market's capacity to absorb global goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. Reuters also observed that multiple indicators for industrial production, consumption, and investment at the start of the year were overall better than expected, showing that the economic rebound is not solely reliant on foreign trade support but reflects a broader recovery trend.
These international media assessments are supported by actual data. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 showed that China's total retail sales of consumer goods in January-February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than the growth rate in December of the previous year. National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.8% year-on-year, shifting from a decline of 3.8% for the full year 2025 to growth in 2026. These positive signals are becoming important bases for the international market to reassess the foundations of China's economic growth. In its recent World Economic Outlook update, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast, acknowledging the economy's strong resilience. The upward revision by international institutions points not only to short-term data improvements but also to deeper, more stable, and resilient changes occurring in the foundations of China's economic growth.
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