Zhongtai Securities released a research report forecasting that Bilibili-W (09626) will achieve total revenues of RMB 29.96 billion, RMB 32.62 billion, and RMB 35.321 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year increases of +12%, +9%, and +8%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 2.257 billion, RMB 3.256 billion, and RMB 4.325 billion for the same period, with 2026 and 2027 showing year-on-year growth of +44% and +33%. The average forward P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is 26x. The company's commercialization is in an acceleration phase; furthermore, AI is expected to significantly enhance content creation efficiency and diversify monetization methods, profoundly impacting its advertising and gaming businesses. This marks the first coverage initiation, with an "Add" rating assigned. Zhongtai Securities' primary viewpoints are as follows: Bilibili: A Domestic IP Ecosystem Platform, Driven by Both Content and Community Operations. Bilibili (bilibili, B站), as a leading video community in China, has become a significant player in the IP derivatives field thanks to its unique operational model. By the end of 2024, the company had cumulatively managed nearly 200 proprietary and licensed IPs, including domestic animations and comics. Since launching its official derivative brand in 2020, leveraging its highly engaged community and content ecosystem advantages, combined with the "Member Purchase" e-commerce channel, Bilibili has progressively built a derivative development model centered on "IP incubation and content empowerment." It has also established sub-brands in areas like figurines and blind boxes, continuously driving the enhancement of IP commercial value and cross-boundary "breakout" popularity. Business Highlights: AI Marketing Empowerment, Advertising Volume and Price Rising Together, Gaming as a Valuable Addition. AI: Peanut AI aids content production, while optimized ad delivery boosts eCPM. On one hand, AI enhances content production quality and efficiency through AIGC, thereby increasing traffic (DAU and average VV per user). In Q4 2025, Bilibili's tested AIGC tool "Peanut" officially launched, positioned as a video creation tool. AI not only lowers the barrier for professional creation, enabling non-professionals to participate in content creation, but also greatly enriches the diversity and innovation of content supply. On the other hand, it leverages precise ad delivery to drive eCPM increases. In 2025, Bilibili's commercialization underwent an upgrade, with the InsightAgent intelligent analysis system fully integrated into Bilibili Light, Bilibili Must-Reach, and Spark Platform, providing tailored AI solutions for various marketing scenarios through large language model capabilities. Advertising: Three Major Products Reshape Marketing Pathways, High-Quality Content Boosts Traffic Growth. Bilibili's advertising approach can be categorized into three main strategies: first, the model combining Spark merchant orders with Take-off promotion; second, performance advertising based on oCPX; and third, brand advertising. In 2024 and the first half of 2025, Bilibili's advertising revenue grew by 27.7% and 20% year-on-year to RMB 8.2 billion and RMB 4.4 billion, respectively. In Q3 2025, Bilibili's DAU reached 117 million, a 9% year-on-year increase, with the DAU/MAU ratio reaching 31%; average daily usage time was 112 minutes, up 6% year-on-year. Currently, Bilibili maintains a restrained approach to ad commercialization, with its ad load rate only between 5-8%, indicating significant remaining potential for monetization. Gaming: Long-term Operation of Existing Titles, New Games Contributing Incremental Growth. Led by "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Supremacy," long-standing secondary games like "FGO" and "Azur Lane" provide a stable revenue foundation for Bilibili's gaming business. In H1 2025, Bilibili's gaming business revenue reached RMB 3.3 billion, a 68% year-on-year increase. "Escape from Yakof" received positive feedback, and new games with differentiated positioning are expected to contribute additional growth. Risk warnings include user growth falling short of expectations, game revenue falling short of expectations, policy and compliance risks, estimation deviations, and risks of delayed updates to research report information.
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